The 2016 election was a nail-biting event for us. Will Crooked Hillary prevail and drag the United States into a perverse Dark Age of progressive tyranny? Will Trump prevail and the rest of the country hold its breath for the unexpected? The Trump administration was unexpected… and wonderful.
Republican pollsters also feared Trump would face frustration with Democrats in Congress, but Republicans emerged victorious.
In the 2018 election, the incredible, failing Democratic Party is headed straight into the wood chipper. Democrats will not take back the House. That will not happen. The DCCC is targeting California, where they will spend large money to knock out the 7 House representatives who voted to repeal Obamacare. Yes, Hillary Clinton won those districts in 2016, but many of them by narrow margins. Incumbents survived, and many by immense margins (except for Darrell Issa, who must remain true to conservative principles).
As Democrats waste millions more in California’s overvalued media markets, expect other swing-state targets to suffer. The Democratic Party is also losing its devoted progressive base, which is still burning with Bernie Sanders. Trump hatred isn’t generating campaign cash for the DNC either.
Democrats also won’t win the U.S. Senate. With 33 seats up for grabs, Democrats have to defend 23 of their own, plus two liberal independents in New England. Republicans have only eight to defend, and only one senator, Dean Heller, represents a state Obama and Hillary won. Despite the national dynamics, Heller has done pretty well. Jeff Flake is the only other vulnerable incumbent senator, but he’s on the right. He’s been very cushioned on immigration. It’s a do-or-die issue for Republicans, especially in a border state like Arizona. I’d argue Flake has bigger problems, but that’s about it.
Now let’s look at the Democratic targets. The five incumbents represent states won by Romney and Trump:
1. Heidi Heitkamp. No wonder in this deep red state, Heitkamp didn’t announce her reelection plans. She’s gone.
2. Joe Manchin. This Democrat in name only has been more than a hindrance to Trump’s agenda on coal, guns, and judicial appointments. He’ll either lose or lean more toward the GOP.
3. Joe Donnelly. He only won because the 2012 Republican nominee was ill-prepared for prime time. He’s offside.
4. Jon Tester. The NRA is targeting this liberal for voting against Gorsuch. Republicans have recently won more statewide elections in Montana. Tester led the Democrats’ uninspiring showing in 2016. He’ll be out of a job in 2018.
5. Claire McCaskill. The GOP trifecta is running the state. Sen. Roy Blunt survived a close race in 2016. A stable, effective challenger should show McCaskill the door in the Show Me State.
Yes, these predictions are early and could all upend the otherwise developing narrative about the strength of the GOP; but with all the GOP forces lining up as they should, it’s a good bet to see these five fall into the GOP column.
What about Democratic incumbents in states where Trump won but Romney didn’t?
1. Bob Casey. The Pennsylvania Republican Party is on a roll. Their registration finally passed the Democratic Party. The state has become not only more Republican, but more conservative. The GOP legislature has grown to supermajority status. Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is the most liberal in the country and just as out of touch. Pat Toomey survived another close challenge in 2016. Pennsylvania Republicans are competitive everywhere, even in deep blue Philadelphia. Casey will fail in 2018.
2. Sherrod Brown. This male version of Elizabeth Warren is watching Ohio turn red beneath his feet. The state legislature is a GOP trio, and Kasich’s vacillations have done nothing to dampen conservatives’ spirits. In the last U.S. Senate election, incumbent Rob Portman defeated a relatively well-known Democratic challenger by double digits. Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel challenged Sherrod in 2012. Today, he trails Brown in three polls. Brown is slipping.
3. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin. The Dairy State has seen the most sweeping GOP transformation of them all. Gov. Scott Walker and Republican majorities in both state houses have turned the birthplace of the Progressive Party into a Republican winter wonderland. Tammy is an extremely liberal state that retains its down-to-earth Midwestern charm. With a number of upper-middle-class Republican candidates in the running, expect a real fight and a solid GOP candidate to squeeze out a win.
4. Debbie Stabenow. Michigan also went Republican. Unfortunately, the 2014 election should have seen Secretary of State Terry Lynn Land snatch the open seat. The GOP brand is growing, but Stabenow has weathered two major challenges. This race remains tough for the GOP to win. If Stabenow retires, a familiar GOP face could take over the seat. If she runs again, forget it.
5. Bill Nelson. He outlasted a lukewarm challenger in 2012. If he retires, Florida is in the running. If he doesn’t, like Michigan, Nelson will win. The Florida Republican Party is gaining ground, but Democrats continue to win House seats in presidential years, which means the GOP still has some way to go.
But Republicans were confident in 2012, and Democrats did better, right? New factors are tilting the map in Republican favor. The liberal mainstream media is not as influential. Democratic infighting has reached such a fever pitch that even the faltering media can’t ignore it.
After Obama, the Democratic Party is doubling down on its anti-American, communist impulses. The growing Democratic madness will further weaken their chances. Look at California, where the state legislature just voted to allow communists to serve openly in state government. Trump will continue his winning ways, sustaining the GOP’s chances nationwide. Trump is no longer the dubious figure that Republicans—candidates and voters alike—feared and avoided in 2016. Narrowly won districts won’t be as close next year. Lower turnout in runoff elections will also benefit Republicans.
Election 2018: Republicans will control Congress and gain 8 seats in the US Senate, achieving the first supermajority since Reconstruction.
