There are 3,088 counties in America, and only 206 of them voted for the winner in each of the last three presidential elections. In other words, these Pivot Counties voted for President Obama twice before switching to vote for President Trump in 2016.
Pivot counties had a disproportionately immense impact on election outcomes. Despite casting just 5 percent of the vote nationally in 2016, they accounted for 51 percent of the popular vote shift toward Republicans.
Not surprisingly, just over half of the Pivot Counties are in the Midwest. This includes 31 counties in Iowa, 22 in Wisconsin, 19 in Minnesota, 12 in Michigan, 12 in Illinois, nine in Ohio and five in Indiana.
Nationally, President Obama won the popular vote by 6 percentage points in 2008 (52 percent to 46 percent) and by 4 percentage points in 2012 (51 percent to 47 percent). Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by just 2 percentage points in 2016 (48 percent to 46 percent).
In 2008, President Obama won the 206 Pivot Counties by 10 points, 54 percent to 44 percent. In 2012, he won them by a slightly smaller margin, 53 percent to 46 percent. But the results in 2016 were dramatically different. Donald Trump won by 8 points, 51 percent to 43 percent. This represents a net change of 15 percentage points (from D+7 in 2012 to R+8 in 2016).
Because of their unique status and significant influence, these Pivot Counties are a good place to study the changing political landscape. I am excited to partner with Ballotpedia, the Encyclopedia of American Politics, to explore what these counties can teach us about the ever-changing landscape of American politics. From now until the 2018 elections, we will be publishing fresh Pivot County data and analysis regularly.
Additionally, each morning at 8:00 a.m. ET, Ballotpedia will publish Scott Rasmussen’s “Number of the Day” to lend a hand readers explore the intersection of culture, politics, and technology.
A compact number of these counties (22) are undecided counties, having voted for the winner in eight consecutive elections dating back to 1988. Two counties—Vigo, Indiana, and Valencia, New Mexico—have voted for the winner in every election dating back to 1960!
But while some of the Pivot Counties have consistently followed the national mood, a larger number have a history that traditionally leans toward Democratic candidates. Most voted for the Democratic candidate during Republican victories in 1988, 2000 and 2004. Only a few voted Republican during Democratic victories in 1992 and 1996.
This strongly suggests that Donald Trump’s ability to win the loyalty of some former Democratic voters was crucial to his victory. As the next few years unfold, it will be intriguing to see whether President Trump can maintain the support of these counties. It will also be fascinating to explore whether this support is unique to the president or part of a broader shift to the Republican Party.
In any such assessment, of course, it is vital to keep the proper perspective and remember that the political system is a lagging indicator of cultural trends. It is culture and technology that drive a nation forward.
