The plant takes over.
Just kidding. But this survey Is interesting:
New data from Zogby Analytics on likely voters in the Republican primary shows the 2012 candidate leading in the 2016 election, but only three percentage points ahead of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and current Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. The poll of 223 likely voters, conducted online Jan. 16-18, has a sampling error of +/- 6.6 percentage points.
Romney tops the list with 16% of voters, followed by Bush and Rubio with 13% each.Next is New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie with 11%, followed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 9%, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker with 6%, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindahl with 4% and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, all with 3%. Other names include South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, New Mexico Gov. Susanna Martinez and former Pennsylvania Gov. Rick Santorum — all with under 1%.
For months, Rubio has been barely hanging on to the bottom of the polls since 2016. As far as I know, this is the first poll to show that exceeding double-digit support in months. But there’s something much more fascinating about this poll than just the top numbers. Rubio, for his part, is earning 13 percent in immense part – and almost entirely – because women Support him.
“Rubio is getting 22% support among women and just 4% among men, and is doing equally well (16% each) among Republicans and conservatives.” pollsters write. By comparison, Romney and Bush earn just 13 percent and 10 percent, respectively, among women. That’s a huge advantage. For a party that has struggled to reach this key demographic, Rubio is showing early signs of promise.
Another point that needs to be emphasized (and Zogby’s pollsters) I did that too) is that, in addition to maintaining support levels that far exceed those of women, Rubio is broadly appealing. He doesn’t fit the mold of a “tea party” candidate (think of his advocacy and defense of comprehensive immigration reform), but he’s also not exactly an “establishment” candidate. In 2010, he ran as a staunch conservative and was even mentioned on the cover National Review magazine early in the campaign. So his support among both Tea Party supporters and more moderate respondents—at least in this particular survey—is typical of his growing appeal and his unique ability to transcend party labels. That awareness may also have been one factor that prompted him to take this step.
Guy wrote a lengthy post titled “Rubio’s Gamble.” Read it. In tiny, he says the Florida senator’s path to the nomination is anything but clear. But as this poll shows, he seems to have the potential and the skills to make a splash in 2016.
We’ll see if it sinks or swims.
