Cable news pundits often warn that Republicans need to respect the righteous anger of Donald Trump supporters. They forget about other angry Republican voters — many of the people I saw at the Republican convention in Burlingame, Calif., last weekend who were faithful GOP voters. They went to lunches and supported candidates in down-ballot races. They care about conservative values; they know how significant it is to win the general election. And they are angry that their party is being taken over by a remnant of unreliable voters who think that because they showed up at a rally they deserve special treatment.
It kills me. This could have been the year Republicans took back the White House. Instead, it could have been the year GOP primary voters handed the election to Hillary Clinton, a dishonest, selfish political beast and the second least liked person in the race.
Trump fans think that because Trump crushed most of the GOP primaries, he can win in November. They don’t care that Gallup says 70 percent of women dislike Trump. His net favor/disfavor rating among women is minus 47 percent. They know women who like Trump. They point to Clinton’s net disfavor rating of minus 3 percent among women. That’s a statistic they trust.
June 7 will be California’s last chance to stop Trump from winning the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination. Because California’s system awards all but 13 of its 172 delegates to the winners of the state’s 53 congressional districts, the “stop-Trump” movement is telling state Republicans to vote for either Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas or Gov. John Kasich of Ohio — whichever candidate is more likely to win that district. (How can you tell? Watch which GOP rival generates the most campaign mail.)
Kasich delivered an outstanding speech at the convention on Friday night. It’s a shame he didn’t address the packed house, because I saw a candidate who understands the economic uncertainty and fear that plagues working-class families without political connections or influence. I saw a Republican do the best job of challenging the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Former California Gov. Pete Wilson endorsed Cruz on Saturday. Wilson doesn’t trust Trump to nominate a Supreme Court candidate, but he believes Cruz would pick solid conservative judges and be a forceful commander-in-chief. Wilson told me, “If he actually wins the nomination, I think Cruz will win it.”
Republican Party professionals have watched Trump trample the party’s slim chances of survival. In the first three months of 2016, California registered 850,000 recent voters—twice as many as during the same period in 2012. Yes, GOP registration is up. But as political data guru Paul Mitchell wrote in Capitol Weekly , the state has seen “a doubling of Latino registration, a more than 150 percent increase among some young voters, and a nearly threefold increase among Democrats.” That’s why many GOP political professionals won’t be voting for Trump in June—or November.
Others say Trump is inevitable. And if he can surprise skeptics by winning the most GOP votes, he might be able to beat the odds in November. OK, there is a possibility that Trump could win, or maybe even could be a good president. But is that likely?
