by Steve Cortes
Will Hispanic and adolescent voters support former President Donald Trump secure a second term in the White House? New polls suggest yes, and overwhelmingly so.
But first, some background on the larger macro shifts in electorate and party identification: The bigger picture, a populist-nationalist insurgency continues to reshape American politics in systemic and, arguably, generational ways. This political tectonic shift is transforming the Republican Party into a blue-collar party, encompassing entire demographics that were previously considered to be the political home of Democrats.
For example, questionnaire from the American Enterprise Institute finds that by 2020, white American households with a union member were as likely to identify as Republicans as Democrats — for the first time in history. In fact, as recently as 2000, Democrats still had a 26-point advantage among such households (43 percent to 17 percent).
But it is no accident that Washington’s one-party state party fully admitted China to the World Trade Organization in 2001 on terms that were incredibly generous to the Beijing regime and utterly devastating to American workers, especially blue-collar workers. Since then, working-class voters have gravitated toward the anti-establishment, populist wing of the Republican Party.
Then, starting with the Tea Party movement and crystallizing in Trump’s 2016 campaign, this group of forgotten Americans fiercely united behind America First. Now, in the 2024 election season, as detailed in the latest polls in key swing states, Trump’s coalition is expanding even further, attracting groups that Democrats previously took for granted.
In Arizona, specifically, a massive political realignment of Latinos and adolescent Americans appears poised not only to send Trump back to the Oval Office but also to shape antiestablishment politics in a lasting way. In a recently completed June survey for American greatness, conducted according to North Star Opinion Research, Trump leads by double digits +10 percent among multiple candidates in the Grand Canyon State. The vote split was Trump 42 percent, Biden 32 percent and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 13 percent.
But the numbers under Trump’s impressive headline are perhaps even more telling — and more significant even after this November. First, in this heavily Latino state, Trump now has lead over Biden among likely Latino voters. It is demanding to overstate how seismic this shift is for national politics. After all, Latinos are now overwhelmingly largest minority group in America… and growing.
If Democrats permanently lose Latinos, as seems inevitable, Republicans will gain huge advantages in key states, especially Arizona, Nevada and even Georgia.
What issues push Latinos toward the populist right?
For starters, the media narrative that Hispanic citizens of the United States are somehow cushioned on immigration is simply a myth. For example, just a few weeks ago, a CBS News/YouGov poll found that most Latinos support mass deportation of all illegal immigrantsOf course, Latinos in Arizona are the ones who feel the effects of Biden’s open borders policy most directly, which is a situation In my last documentary I explored the border in southern Arizona..
But beyond the border issue, Latinos are also shrinking from the pain of Biden’s economic shortcomings. The ravages of runaway inflation are hurting far more those of modest means, including most Latino households.
The same problem is pushing a second key group into Trump’s coalition: adolescent American voters. In Arizona In the 18-34 demographic, Trump leads Biden by +4 percent in a multi-candidate field. This number simply equals the political death of Democrats. Young adults generally judge their well-being by income, not assets.
While older, successful Americans enjoy inflated asset prices, especially stocks and real estate, ambitious adolescent citizens suffer from falling inflation-adjusted wages under Biden. This next generation is working harder, only to see their standard of living decline — and they know it. What’s more, they blame Biden. For example, as many as 75 percent of them They say Biden isn’t doing enough on inflation.
As a result, the Democratic Party’s failures with working Americans are creating a huge political opening. In addition, the newfound, muscular, populist energy of the America First movement is proving magnetic to disaffected groups like Latinos and adolescent adults. These demographics are key pillars of Trump’s emerging coalition. This recent political alignment will send Trump back to office—and change American politics for decades to come.
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Steve Cortes is a former senior advisor to President Trump, a former Fox News and CNN commentator, and the president of the League of American Workers, a right-wing populist group that advocates for workers’ rights.
Photo “Donald Trump” by Donald Trump.
