by Ben Whedon
As Democratic heavyweights consider replacing President Joe Biden with the Democratic nominee in the 2024 election after a disastrous debate that exposed even his most ardent supporters as being in a bad mood, their efforts are hampered by one major problem: choosing an alternative.
Among the most likely candidates are Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom, a California Democrat. While Harris’ position may seem like Biden’s natural successor, Newsom has long been attracted speculation about his own presidential ambitions and even Republican Party presidential candidate Ron DeSantis debated at the time at the end of last year.
But such speculation is of little value as long as the current president remains in the race. So far, Biden’s campaign alone opposed calls to withdraw race or let the party choose another candidate to face former President Donald Trump. Fueling such calls was Biden’s performance in CNN’s presidential debate last week, during which he frequently stumbled over his answers and seemed lost on stage. The performance reignited concerns about his age and fitness for office, even as he insisted he was up to the task.
“There has been a breakdown of the party,” said former Deputy Secretary of State Bobby Charles on the subject ofOnly news, no noise“TV show. “I don’t know how else to describe it. We’ve all known for a long time that Joe Biden is not up to the task. He hasn’t been up to the task for months, if not years.”
But Biden’s family and a number of Democratic heavyweights have continued to support the president, and the campaign has since begun running ads that reference his age in an effort to blunt criticism. It has also highlighted the comparable poll numbers of alternative candidates against Trump and noted that Biden’s war chest would be unavailable to an alternative candidate. At the heart of the matter, some experts say, is the first lady and her reluctance to give up power.
“So the pressure on Biden is growing… the structure [of] The Democratic Party wants[s] “He’s gone,” said conservative journalist and author Bill O’Reilly.Only news, no noise” in an interview that will air this week. “And Jill Biden saved Biden, her husband, for a short period of time.”
“Jill Biden is the most powerful person in the White House right now. Nobody gets to Joe unless you go through Jill, and Jill won’t go away. And Joe does everything Jill tells him to do. That’s why he’s still there,” he insisted.
Harris and Newsom are the leading candidates
It’s no surprise that the current vice president and leader of the country’s largest Democratic stronghold have topped the list of potential party alternatives. But each has their flaws and potential risks as a party candidate.
“If they start going down that road… Who would you pick?” pollster Scott Rasmussen asked. “I can tell you that the polls and the numbers in the conversation suggest that Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom are at the top of the list.”
Polling data suggests Trump would beat any of the Democratic alternative candidates, though some are doing better than Biden. In CNN poll after the debateBiden trails Trump at 43% to Trump’s 49%. Harris, however, did slightly better, earning 45% to Trump’s 47%. Newsom did comparable to Biden, earning 43% to Trump’s 48%.
Separate Data for progress poll, highlighted by the Biden campaign, showing Biden and Harris each earning 45%, and Trump 48%, while many other Democrats are doing worse against the Republican. Newsom earned 44%, and Trump 47% in that matchup.
But current poll numbers aren’t the only factor considered when choosing a potential nominee. In Harris’ case, many of her own accomplishments are tied to Biden’s, and the public seems to view her less favorably than the commander-in-chief.
“As far as other people go, Kamala Harris is polling at about 32 percent for jobs, which is a disaster,” O’Reilly said.
Current RealClearPolitics poll average shows Harris has 36.3% acceptance ratecompared to 55.7% disapproval. Biden, for his part, has slightly better 38.9% acceptance ratebut a worse disapproval rate of 57.6%.
On these issues Harris was nominally a spokeswoman for the administration immigration secretary, was anointed by Biden as “border czar,” though she has stayed out of the spotlight throughout her term and drawn persistent questions about her role in the crisis at the border.
In turn, Newsome’s achievements are closely tied to the current situation in California.
“Gavin Newsom, who wants this, I understand, has ordered more hair products. So that’s an indicator. He’s ruined California,” O’Reilly said. “Anyone who lives there knows that. They’re bankrupt, the state.”
The state’s economic woes and high crime rates have long been a focus for Newsome’s conservative critics, and the governor has found it complex to defend his handling of those issues in the public square.
During a November debate with DeSantis, the two men traded sarcastic remarks about their policies in a concise discussion moderated by Sean Hannity forced to intervene repeatedly.
“You almost have to try to screw up California,” DeSantis said at the time. “They failed because of his leftist ideology.”
One above the other?
Even if Democrats are attracted enough by the prospect of Newsome or Harris running that they decide to somehow get rid of Biden, internal party factions could prove complex to unite, especially in delicate of the contemporary diversity narratives that have become integral to party ideology.
“[T]“The Democratic Party’s active base is dominating this process,” Rasmussen said. “If this suddenly came out, it would be a brutal, brutal fight between Democrats.”
“Those who want to get rid of Kamala Harris because they think she’s a weak candidate will be accused of how they can blame the first woman of color to be vice president, and especially replace her with a white man,” he continued.[T]The Democratic Party base would force any potential candidate to move further to the left politically. It would be, you know, just the difficulty of replacing President Biden as a candidate would be staggering.”
Moreover, it’s not certain that the choice will come down to Newsome or Harris. In the 2020 Democratic primary, which Biden won, more than two dozen candidates threw their hats in the ring. Other alternatives, such as Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, have also been proposed, though neither has gained comparable popularity and each has its own concerns.
“Pritzker in Illinois: [All] you have to look at Chicago,” O’Reilly added. “They really don’t have anyone right now who can beat Trump except Michelle Obama, and they’ve blocked the former First Lady 100%. Nobody’s getting any information about her at all.”
How would that even work?
A disputed convention would not be unprecedented, but Biden’s status as the presumptive nominee and the timing of the convention could pose problems for an alternative candidate.
“The legal logistics of replacing Joe Biden are incredibly complicated. First, he’s already on the ballot in several states that will likely have to file lawsuits to replace him on the ballot,” Rasmussen noted.
Democrats are currently planning to hold virtual roll call officially nominate Biden before the Democratic National Convention to meet the deadline to certify its candidate to appear on the ballot in Ohio. If the party replaced him after the convention, the modern candidate likely would not appear on the ballot in that state.
The situation is further complicated by delegates who must vote for Biden because of his victories in the primaries in their states.
“[T]here is a convention where all the delegates have already been or [a] majority of delegates have been pledged to President Biden. They have to find a way to change the rules,” Rasmussen said. “It’s happened before. In 1980, Ted Kennedy tried to break away Jimmy Carter’s delegates; it didn’t work.”
“[W]what’s going to come of it?” Charles asked. “Well, I’ll just tell you that historically, there have only been 10 or 12 conventions that have been really, really hard-fought, hard-fought. And none of those conventions have included someone who came to the convention with all the delegates, or practically all the delegates.”
“One possibility is that they go to their virtual convention on August 7th. They go ahead and kind of crown Biden and Harris as their nominees and then say maybe two weeks later, or three weeks later, maybe after their formal convention on August 19th, 20th, that he really isn’t capable of doing that,” he speculated. “And that allows the committee to actually insert [an alternative] as if he died before the election.”
“So I think they are desperate, but you know, desperate times breed desperate measures,” he concluded.
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Ben Whedon is an editor and reporter for Just the News. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter.
Photo “Gavin Newsom” by Governor of California. Photo “Kamala Harris” by Kamala Harris, photo Kamala Harris
