The so-called Republican establishment is painfully aware that Texas Sen. Ted Cruz may be its only hope of blocking Donald Trump from winning the nomination and Hillary Clinton from winning the White House. Of course, that’s not a given. There are as many theories about how to emerge from this year’s Republican convention with an acceptable candidate as there are interpretations of what happened on the television series “Lost.”
But the most likely path to a Trump-free, Republican-controlled White House is consolidation around Cruz. That’s a tough conclusion for many, and one that some may not reach until Sen. Marco Rubio loses his home state of Florida in the primary. And some may never accept Cruz, choosing instead to bend the knee to Trump.
Many believe — rightly, in my opinion — that Rubio would be a more competitive opponent for Clinton in the general election. But many also believe that Hulk would be a great offensive lineman in the NFL. In other words, reality has a way of removing our personal preferences from the menu. If the math isn’t on Rubio’s side, hopes and wishes can’t change that.
That leaves Cruz.
(What is that? What about Ohio Gov. John Kasich? Well, what about him? He’s just running to be a spoiler or kingmaker at the convention.)
The main objections conservatives and Republican insiders have to Cruz boil down to three things. (1) They just don’t like him. (2) They think he’s unelectable. (3) They think he’d be as selfish a pain as president as he was as a senator. Let’s take all three in turn.
Cruz will tell you that the Washington Cartel doesn’t like him because he’s challenged the system and is a threat to K Street, etc. But that’s only part of the story. His fellow senators don’t like him because they don’t like him. They say he’s arrogant and condescending, a terrible listener, and completely uninterested in doing anything that doesn’t advance his own interests. They see him as a right-wing Arlen Specter—a notoriously tough and self-absorbed senator.
The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. There are people who have known Cruz for years and hate him, and there are people who have known him for years and love him. I find him very pleasant and engaging in conversation. But almost everyone respects his intellect. Cruz is simply one of the smartest people in Washington.
And here it’s worth noting that his 2016 theory was right. Cruz focused on finding the right friends and, just as importantly, finding the right enemies. He understood that the populist and working-class elements of the GOP coalition were livid at the establishment, and that tapping into that anger would be key to winning the primaries.
In fairness, Cruz helped inflame those constituencies. But that’s politics.
He missed one thing: the black swan known as Donald Trump. Cruz brilliantly made the bed, and Trump jumped in when Cruz wasn’t looking.
Still, Cruz was the only candidate to effectively respond to Trump, and it’s fair to say he’s the only alternative many Trump supporters could accept.
The point is that Cruz, despite his apparent stiffness, is actually an extraordinarily agile and capable politician. The assumption that he couldn’t beat Clinton is disproved not just by the polls but by the fact that Cruz has demonstrated a mercenary willingness to do whatever it takes to win (and I mean that as a compliment).
And then there’s the worry about President Cruz. That’s what I’m least worried about.
Unlike Trump, Cruz is ideologically and intellectually qualified to be president (and pick Supreme Court nominees). What’s more, there are two things that even Cruz haters can concede. First, it’s obvious that President Cruz will want to be reelected. Second, Cruz’s “brand” rests almost entirely on his loyalty to the Constitution. Aping Barack Obama’s contempt for the Constitution simply wouldn’t be an option for Cruz, and that means he’d have to work with Congress to get his conservative agenda through.
It was a year when many good and honorable people had to swallow their pride. The trough is not empty yet, and many others may need a run if they want to save the GOP.
