The Republican National Convention is in two weeks in Milwaukee, and it could shake up the political landscape here in Ohio. While there’s no doubt about the top of the ticket, former President Donald Trump has hinted that he plans to pick a vice presidential candidate before or during the nominating convention. U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, R-OH, is on Trump’s low list, and if he gets the nod and wins the election, it could start a chair game among the state’s top Republicans.
Nuts and bolts
If there is a vacancy in Ohio’s U.S. Senate delegation, the governor can appoint a replacement. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine’s office declined to discuss what factors would have influenced his decision. A spokesman called the considerations hypothetical and said it would be “discourteous to those involved to comment at this time.”
Even if Trump chooses Vance, actual vacancies are still a long way off.
Vance does not have to resign to run for vice president. For example, in 2016, U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine, a Virginia Democrat, was Hillary Clinton’s vice presidential candidate. After losing the election, he returned to the Senate and continued serving. Similarly, in 2008, Barack Obama and John McCain served as U.S. senators while running for president. Obama moved up, and McCain kept his ancient job.
Assuming Vance followed this pattern, the vacancy would only arise if he were elected vice president and the Trump-Vance team were to win in November.
Whatever DeWine decides, his nominee would not necessarily serve out Vance’s term, which runs until 2028. Instead, state law calls for a special election at the next regularly scheduled election, which would be held at least 180 days later. That means the election to fill Vance’s unexpired term would be in November 2026.
Whoever the governor selects will be eligible to defend his or her seat in a special election in 2026. It’s a infrequent set of circumstances — the last appointee was Democrat Howard Metzenbaum in 1974 — and the track record is not impressive.
The US Senate maintains Appointed Members Database going back to 1913, when the 17th Amendment established the direct election of U.S. Senators and the process for replacing them. All five appointed U.S. Senators from Ohio were unable to win a subsequent special election.
Two of them did not even win their party’s nomination.
political landscape
Beyond the procedural issues surrounding a potential vacancy, there’s the question of who should be considered. Earlier this year, the Republican Party chose Bernie Moreno as its U.S. Senate candidate in a race against state Sen. Matt Dolan, R-Chagrin Falls, and Secretary of State Frank LaRose.
If Moreno wins in November, Dolan and LaRose could be on the ticket. Another possibility is that DeWine could pick a future gubernatorial candidate in hopes of narrowing the field in the 2026 primary. Still another possibility would be to pick one of Ohio’s U.S. representatives, which would set up another search for a pinch hitter.
For Ohio Wesleyan University political scientist Brianna Mack, there will be a sturdy case for replacing like-for-like, finding “someone who is also in the MAGA camp” like Vance. But just before Election Day in this year’s primary, DeWine went in a different direction, endorsing a more centrist candidate, Dolan. While Mack acknowledges that it might seem like a “logical” option to go back to Dolan, endorsing a candidate the party has so recently passed over could be risky.
“So let’s say he appoints Dolan,” she said. “Ultimately, it may be that this person does not win the upcoming election.”
“Dolan ran twice and didn’t win the nomination, so we know the party doesn’t want him,” she added. “Even though he’s a more moderate choice and would probably do better nationally, if he doesn’t make it through the state primary, what’s the point?”
David Cohen, a political scientist at the University of Akron, has stressed that “if there’s going to be a vacancy, that means Trump won the presidential election.” Even given the demands of preparing for a second term, Cohen doubts Trump would hold back on making a statement about Vance’s successor.
“(Trump) would certainly be someone who would have some influence on who he thinks should fill that seat,” Cohen said. “And that’s certainly something that Governor DeWine would have to grapple with.”
Cohen also stressed that the Ohio Republican Party has a number of potential candidates, and DeWine will have no shortage of familiar faces beyond recent U.S. Senate candidates.
“Maybe there could be a political deal so there aren’t so many candidates for governor,” Cohen suggested. “Instead, someone decides to go to the U.S. Senate, maybe they get a little extra support because I think the (2026) gubernatorial race is going to be pretty crowded.”
If Ohio voters split the ticket in November, favoring Trump for president while also re-electing U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat, the vacancy could give Moreno a second chance in the Senate.
Cohen said such a switch is not ruled out.
“Well, I think it would depend on the election results, certainly,” he said. “If the election was fairly close, I think it would be an easy argument.”
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