***Live election results***
With 70% of reports, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are in close conflict.
Sanders, meanwhile, is leading Hillary.
Ahead of the Missouri primary, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump had leads among their opponents, although polls in the state were thin.
Fort Hays St University vote conducted just a few days before today’s election showed Trump leading the Republican Party candidates by 7 points.
Among Republicans, billionaire businessman Trump leads Texas Sen. Ted Cruz 36-29, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio with 9 percent and Ohio Gov. John Kasich with 8 percent. A total of 17 percent of Republican poll respondents said they were undecided.
In the same surveyClinton also led her rival, Senator Bernie Sanders, by 7 points, although newer According to the PPP poll, Sanders leads by 1 percentage point.
In any case, despite today’s focus on Ohio and Florida, the race in Missouri is crucial and could prove just as crucial in determining Trump’s path to the nomination.
“Missouri will play a key role” in further narrowing the field, Cruz told reporters in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, last week. And his campaign manager, Jeff Roe, confirmed that in a recent interview with RCPsaying they see a “real opportunity” in The Show Me State. “Trump has a voice everywhere, but when you consider the congressional breakdowns and the media markets that we’re in, we think we have a real opportunity in this state,” he said.
FiveThirtyEight That’s right:
This could be Cruz’s best state Tuesday, though there were few polls, so it’s challenging to know exactly what’s happening in the Show-Me State. As in almost every other state, Trump is leading by about 30 percent. But unlike Illinois, Cruz is a clear second in Missouri. Cruz also did disproportionately well in the region. He Iowa won in Missouri in the north and in Kansas in the west, and he came in second in Arkansas in the south. Cruz also vied with Rubio to be the anti-Trump in those states, but given Rubio’s struggles, Cruz will have a better shot at Trump in Missouri. That said, this election was not an open primary like Missouri, a format that has traditionally favored Trump.If Trump wins Missouricould be on track to win every state on Tuesday. Either way, there’s a robust possibility of delegates being split in the state, since most are awarded by congressional district.
On the Democratic side, based on the latest poll mentioned, the race is currently uncertain, although Clinton’s huge delegate lead — currently 1,227 to Sanders’ 576 — gives her plenty of breathing room. Still, depending on how tonight goes for Sanders, Clinton may still have to spend time, energy and money Repelling attacks from the Vermont state senator for a while.
In terms of delegate count, there are 52 Republican Party delegates up for grabs (40 districts and 12 statewide) and 71 Democratic Party delegates up for grabs (47 districts, 24 statewide).
And how will they be awarded? That is a bit complicated.
For Democrats:
[T]The votes of Missouri’s 71 delegates will be determined by the people in an open primary; voters are free to mark any vote — Democratic, Republican or Libertarian — they choose. Missouri Democrats have a somewhat complicated procedure for assigning delegates to their convention this summer in Philadelphia; 47 delegates will be awarded proportionally to each candidate who wins more than 15 percent of the vote in the state’s eight congressional districts.
The remaining delegates will be divided proportionally based on each candidate’s share of the statewide vote, with a 15 percent threshold also in place. In a predominantly rural state, this type of allocation scheme gives more weight to voters in sparsely populated rural congressional districts (MO-3, MO-4, MO-6, MO-7, MO-8), while providing less than equal representation to voters in the more urban and suburban areas of St. Louis, Kansas City, and Independence.
And Republicans:
In Missouri, GOP delegates will compete for 52 delegates, which will be awarded in a similarly convoluted way. First, only candidates who are actively campaigning can receive delegates. That means anyone who meets the ballot deadline but drops out of the race will not be eligible to receive delegate support. If someone receives more than 50 percent of the vote, it’s a winner-take-all system. If they don’t, they’ll be split up differently. Twelve will go to the statewide popular vote winner, and five to the winners of each of Missouri’s eight congressional districts. As in the Democratic primary, this system gives more weight to the five rural congressional districts than to the more densely populated urban and suburban areas.
Voting ends at 7pm central time. Stay tuned for live updates as results come in.
