When most conservatives think of the Electoral College, they think of one of the last bastions holding back the hordes of Democratic voters who are just frothing at the mouth to take away our freedoms and turn us into a socialist, communist, one-party police state.
This is only natural, considering that the last two cases in which a US president lost the popular vote and still won under the current system were in 2000 under President George W. Bush and 2016 under President George W. Bush. Donald Trump’s presidency. If we lived under a popular vote system and Al Gore won re-election in 2004, we could expect 32 years of uninterrupted Democratic Party rule and the complete collapse of our Republic. You think everything looks bad now, imagine how bad it could have been, or at least that’s what the logic goes for.
I get it. The Founders weren’t massive fans of pure democracy, and they put in place safeguards to prevent the majority from overpowering the minority. Hence the Senate, to which each state, immense or diminutive, can send two, the Constitution, which can only be amended with the consent of three-fourths of the states, and the Electoral College, where electors from each state can decide who the president is. As the office of president seemingly becomes more and more consistent with any occupant, subjecting the most powerful person in the world to the unconstrained will of the easily swayed masses seems like a risky proposition.
On the other hand, the current system also seems quite precarious to conservatives, especially given the results of the last election. Yes, President Joe Biden won the popular vote by 7 million votes, but he also won the Electoral College 306-232, a margin that former President Donald Trump deemed a “huge, landslide victory” even though he lost the popular vote in 2016.
After voting Republican in six straight elections from 1968 to 1988, only George W. Bush won New Mexico for the GOP in 2004. Virginia, once a Republican stronghold, turned blue in 2008 and hasn’t looked back. Georgia and Arizona “officially” went purple, voting Democratic by narrow margins in 2020. Texas, which Republicans absolutely must win, hasn’t voted no since 1976, but that margin has shrunk with each election cycle. Donald Trump won the state in 2020 with just 52.07% of the vote.
In most, if not all, of these states, demographic changes due to both internal and external immigration have shifted matters irreversibly to the left. If Texas falls, which many political analysts predict will happen no later than 2028, it will be structurally impossible for a Republican candidate to win enough Electoral College votes to win the presidential election. In fact, while Republicans won the Electoral College but lost the popular vote twice in the last two decades, the opposite scenario is more than possible in the coming cycles.
But that would never happen, you say, citing as “proof” that Republicans haven’t won a general election since 2004. Yes, but as Trump pointed out, Republicans also weren’t PLAYING to win the popular vote, which is a completely different “game” than constantly campaigning in several swing states.
If you’re a Republican in a state like California, for example, could you consider staying home, knowing that millions of voters are vastly outnumbered and your vote really doesn’t matter in the national scheme of things? Sure, maybe there’s a member of Congress you’d like to see elected, but is electing Devin Nunes (as good as he is) a reason to face traffic jams, potholes, and the risk of being mugged? I would say yes, but are there those who might hesitate, those who would be more likely to make their voices heard if they knew their vote would be used to elect the person to hold the highest office in the land? ? It’s difficult to imagine not.
So in that sense, a nationwide popular vote would not only augment voter turnout, but it could also facilitate lower-voting party members in ways that are difficult to predict and likely good for congressional Republicans in blue states.
The answer, of course, is that Democrats could do the same in red states. That’s right, they could. But there is some evidence that Republicans could gain more from a nationwide popular vote. For example, Oklahoma, a solidly red state, came in last place in voter turnout in 2020. How many otherwise non-voting Oklahomans would have taken the opportunity to cancel the vote of the New York Democratic Socialist? I don’t know, but probably more than a few.
And in the end, that’s what it’s all about. The presidential election is a national event and it seems that it should be treated as such. Instead, under the current system, presidential candidates only campaign and make promises in swing states. In 2020, Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina received the most campaign visits, while states like Montana, Tennessee, Alabama, Oregon, Washington and many others had a total of… zero visits.
In fact, 12 states received a full 96% of general election campaign visits. If you’re a resident of one of these states, do you think you may have received a campaign promise or three? Conversely, how many campaign promises did Kentuckians receive? I live in Tennessee and I don’t remember Biden or Trump lobbying for my vote or promising me a damn thing. And worse, what does a sitting president do when he knows he has to win, say, Michigan to have a shot at a second term? Could it be at the expense of residents of another state? Wouldn’t it be better if ideas were vetted based on their impact on the entire country, not just a few states?
Sure, there are potential downsides, but one of them isn’t that it’s unconstitutional. An interstate compact on the popular vote has already been enacted by the legislatures of 16 states, which the Constitution expressly recognizes. You could point out that all of these states are currently run by Democrats and you would be right. However, it is also gaining popularity in red states such as Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee.
As Democrats consolidate their grip on government, look for more and more Republicans to sign on to this idea, which will be the ultimate measure to open up the playing field and try to defeat Democrats by forcing them to defend their harmful ideas across the board instead of just a few seats. What the hell do we have to lose?
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