Trump just got more good news from the polls, but what about key Senate races?

It is worth noting that “data were collected on April 25–29, 2024,” which means that Trump’s trial was taking place in New York at the time the fieldwork was conducted. As with the CNN poll we checked earlier this week, it doesn’t look like extensive coverage of these legal proceedings will hurt Trump’s standing. Maybe it helped him. What about the conviction in this case? What impact could this have on voters’ choices in these states?

In the Emerson Battleground polls, independent respondents were asked how the Trump conviction in New York would affect their voting decision. Most said they had no effect. Other results were mixed, depending on the condition: pic.twitter.com/bv3ViNLk5d

— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) April 30, 2024

These polls also examined several critical Senate races that occurred in these battleground states. As we mentioned earlier, the 2024 Senate map looks very promising for Republicans, who need to gain a net two seats to regain a majority in the upper chamber. The three most vulnerable seats up for grabs by Team Red (West Virginia, Ohio and Montana) are unrepresented in the seven states polled here. But the five others are:

In Arizona during the US Senate elections, 45% support Democrat Ruben Gallego to replace retiring Senator Kyrsten Sinema, and 43% support Republican Kari Lake; 12% are undecided. In Pennsylvania In the US Senate elections, 46% support incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey, 42% support Republican Dave McCormick, and 12% are undecided. In Michigan In the U.S. Senate elections, 42% support Democrat Elissa Slotkin for the open seat, 40% support Republican Mike Rogers and 19% are undecided. IN Wisconsin, 46% of voters support incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, while 43% support Republican Eric Hovde. Eleven percent are undecided. In a hypothetical Nevada In the U.S. Senate matchup between incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen and Republican Sam Brown, Rosen leads 45% to 37%, with 18% undecided.

The bad news for Republicans is that yes losing in all five races, by two to seven percentage points. Arizona and Michigan (and West Virginia) are open; the other three are Democratic incumbents (as are Ohio and Montana). The better news is that some of these races have seen trajectories shift toward GOP candidates over time. CBS News Poll shows that two of these races are less competitive, with Democrats leading by seven points. The GOP has a chance to win eight seats in November if everything goes perfectly (including Maryland, where moderate Republican Larry Hogan has a double-digit lead in several early polls). But at this point, I would call West Virginia just a slam dunk for GOP gain. About half a dozen others are in threatened territory. Normally close Senate races usually end the same way on Election Day.

I’ll leave you with the NRSC Chairman, Senator Steve Daines (R-MT) sounds generally bullish about how things are going, though his resource warning – Democrats massively outnumber Republicans – is something of a red flag:

Additional note: Many other national polls show Trump ahead (Harvard/Harris Trump +5Monmouth Trump +1), tied (Morning consultation) or slightly delayed (Public opinion strategies Biden +2).