WASHINGTON — Top Democratic campaign officials pressed their case for control of Congress and the White House on Thursday, pointing to the upcoming second anniversary of the U.S. Supreme Court’s invalidation of a constitutional right to abortion.
More than a dozen Democrats have also introduced legislation in Congress to prevent a future Republican administration from using an 1873 law, known as the Comstock Act, to prohibit abortion drugs from being mailed.
Speaking to reporters, the three campaign leaders said voters must flip the House from red to blue, keep Democrats in control of the Senate despite long odds and ensure President Joe Biden stays in the Oval Office to prevent the GOP from potentially implementing nationwide restrictions on reproductive rights .
Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Vice Chairman Sen. Tina Smith of Minnesota, and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairwoman Suzan DelBene of Washington have repeatedly said that Democrats would restore nationwide protections for abortion access if they were given unified control of the government.
But they have not provided a clear plan for action by Democrats on reproductive rights, including access to contraception and in vitro fertilization, if divided control of the government continues.
Instead, they pointed to what Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, might do if voters elect him president in November’s election.
“We must make clear that Republicans Trump and MAGA want to ban abortion and have a plan to do so through executive action, without Congress passing any law; because they believe that politicians should have the power to make these decisions on behalf of women whose lives and stories they will never know,” Smith said in a telephone interview.
The Comstock Act is feared
The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, has released “The 2025 Project,” a sweeping document laying out what it believes Trump should do in a second term.
The Trump campaign has not endorsed the document or said it would seek full or partial implementation of it, although its development was led by a former Trump administration official.
The proposal includes using the Comstock Act — a law passed more than 150 years ago to prevent the mailing of obscene materials, contraceptives or anything that could cause an abortion — to ban the shipment of abortion drugs throughout the United States.
Smith introduced a three-page bill Thursday that would eliminate that possibility, although the legislation may not advance in the Senate and is highly unlikely to make it through the GOP-controlled House before November.
According to the Guttmacher Institute, medication abortion, which includes mifepristone and misoprostol, accounts for about 63% of abortions nationwide. These two pharmaceuticals are also used to treat miscarriages. Misoprostol also has other medical uses.
The Comstock Act, passed in 1873, originally banned mailing of material then considered lewd or obscene, but was written so broadly that it was used to ban boxing photos, works of art and information about contraception.
The law expressly prohibits the mailing of “any article or thing designed, adapted or intended to cause abortion or for any indecent or immoral use.” Smith’s bill would eliminate these provisions.
When asked about the Comstock bill on Thursday, Smith said a “zombie law” could be used to outlaw medical abortion without a vote in Congress.
“It’s very clear what their plan is,” Smith said of Republicans. “This is another example of the very clear choice that American voters have.”
DelBene, who is leading the House Democratic campaign, said in a telephone interview that Republicans are already trying to change when and how Americans have access to various reproductive rights by attaching amendments to mandatory government funding bills.
“This election is fundamentally about our rights, our freedoms, our democracy and our future,” DelBene said. “House Republicans have made clear they are willing to do anything to strip them.”
It predicted a divided Congress
However, in the eyes of some analysts, the most likely outcome of the November election will not be unified Democratic control at this time.
Three experts from Moody’s Analytics published the report analysis this week, showing that the most likely outcome is that Biden will remain president with a divided Congress.
The probability of this scenario was 40%, while the probability of a Republican coup was 35%. The probability of Trump winning the presidential election and having a divided Congress was 15%. According to the report, the Democrats have a 10% chance of winning.
The most likely scenario for President Biden remaining in a divided Congress suggests that the GOP will flip the Senate and Democrats will retake the House of Representatives.
“With the retirement of West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin, the deep-red state will almost certainly elect a Republican senator, leaving the Senate evenly divided,” the report said. “But while recent polls show Senate races in Arizona, Maryland, Montana, Nevada and Ohio are close, Republicans only need to win one of these seats to regain the majority.”
“Each race has its own story, but helping Republicans is anxiety about inflation and heightened concern about the immigration crisis at the southern border,” the report adds.
The analysis goes on to say that “federal court decisions on redistricting have also tilted in Democrats’ favor, increasing their chances” of regaining control of the House.
“Further, given that officials win re-election more than 90% of the time, the relatively large number of congressional retirements compared to previous cycles creates the potential for greater changes in the body,” the analysis states.
The report details the four November election results, as well as the various economic scenarios that will play out under a Biden or Trump presidency over the next four years.
The report was written by Chief Economist Mark M. Zandi, Director/Senior Economist Brendan La Cerda and Economist Justin Begley.
