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A survey of Ohio lawmakers reveals Statehouse projections for the 2026 midterms

Voting booths await voters in the November 5, 2024 general election at North Junior High in Boise. (Photo by Pat Sutphin for the Idaho Capital Sun)

As the election season enters full swing, a recent survey of Ohio lawmakers provides insight into their predictions for the results of Ohio’s November midterm elections.

In November, Ohioans will vote for a recent governor, attorney general, auditor, secretary of state and treasurer, as well as one U.S. Senate candidate and two Ohio Supreme Court races.

The Gongwer/Werth legislative study According to the survey’s website, it is a periodic survey of members of the Ohio General Legislature to gather lawmakers’ views on current policy and legislative issues.

For the latest addition, the survey collected responses from 35% of Ohio lawmakers about the potential outcomes of six key midterm elections.

U.S. Senate race in Key Ohio

As former Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown tries to regain his seat in Congress after his 2024 loss to Ohio GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno, the odds are divided on whether Ohioans will ride the blue wave this November.

Legislative respondents said there was a 35% chance Brown would win the race, 8% were undecided and 56% would choose the GOP candidate, U.S. Sen. Jon Husted.

Husted, a former lieutenant governor of Ohio, was appointed to his Senate seat following the 2024 election of Vice President J.D. Vance.

Brown returned to campaigning on a platform of affordable health care and worker protections.

Ohio Governor’s Race

The race for Ohio’s top job has already been selected as one to watch as November approaches.

With Democratic candidate Dr. Amy Acton winning her uncontested primary and Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy running away with his, both candidates approach Election Day with no prior experience as elected officials.

Legislative respondents said Ramaswamy has a 64% chance of winning, giving Acton a 29% chance, with 7% of respondents undecided.

Notably, none of the Democratic respondents chose Ramaswamy, while 6% of Republican candidates said Acton would win.

Acton and Ramaswamy are already curators of a record-breakingly exorbitant election.

According to his website, Ramaswamy primarily advocates lowering taxes, reducing government energy waste and advocating for greater energy independence.

According to its website, Acton’s platform includes increasing affordability in housing and health care, improving public education and supporting diminutive businesses.

Congressional races in Ohio

The U.S. Congressional race in Ohio’s 9th District was also highly contested, with incumbent Ohio Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur facing former Ohio Rep. Derek Merrin in a rematch, this time with district lines more favoring Republicans after Merrin lost by just over 1% in 2024.

Kaptur has represented the district since 1983, making her the longest-serving woman in Congressional history.

Lawmakers polled predict another close race for the pair. The survey found that 52% of legislators chose Kaptur to keep their position, 43% chose Merrin to win and 5% were undecided.

According to its website, the Kaptur platform emphasizes that its priority is to strengthen the economy and boost border security.

Merrin’s platform includes lowering income and property taxes, reducing health regulations for patients and promoting price transparency, according to his website.

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