The conventional wisdom after Tuesday’s election is that abortion is a killer for the GOP. Republicans had high hopes of winning the Virginia Legislature, but they lost the Virginia House and failed to capture the Virginia Senate. An abortion constitutional amendment was passed in Ohio. But a review of the Virginia data suggests a compromise on 15-week abortion is a winning issue for Republicans.
In 2023, anticipating a fierce Democratic attack on the Republican Party on the issue of abortion, (*15*) Glenn Youngkin of Virginia led the GOP to pass the 15-week abortion bill, which would have banned abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, except for rape, incest, and the life of the mother . As Democrats escalated their attacks on Youngkin and Republicans, insisting that the GOP ban all abortions, the GOP repeatedly rejected its compromise proposal.
On election night 2023, not everything went as the GOP wanted. Not only did the Republicans lose the Virginia House of Delegates, they failed to capture the Virginia Senate. Naturally, popular opinion hastened to explain all this with abortion policy. Conventional wisdom is wrong.
First, everyone ignores the fact that Virginia underwent state legislative redistricting. Virginia Republicans entered an environment in which several races became more hard due to changed lines. Second, Democrats outdid Republicans in Virginia by attacking the GOP as a MAGA cult that banned all abortions for women.
What actually happened in Virginia? Faced with up-to-date redistricting and Democratic spending advantages, Republicans went from a 52-48 majority to a 48-51 minority, with one seat remaining as of this writing. It’s not exactly an explosion. Even bigger picture: heading into Virginia’s 2021 House of Delegates elections, the GOP held just 45 seats. In other words, even though they lost in 2023, they didn’t lose as badly in 2023 as the Democrats lost in 2021, even though they were outmatched and mercilessly attacked on the topic of abortion.
In the Virginia Senate, the GOP went from an 18-seat minority with Democrats holding 22 seats to a 19-seat GOP minority with 21 seats. This represents a one-seat gain for the GOP, despite Democrats’ spending advantage in the election.
You could be forgiven for thinking there was a blue wave when it came to abortion. In fact, a popular compromise is on a 15-week abortion, or more than three months of pregnancy. That’s probably why the media was so forceful and quick to declare that abortion was costing the GOP the Virginia Legislature. The left needed to consolidate conventional wisdom as quickly as possible.
It is true that pro-lifers have lost every fight to change the constitution on abortion. Indeed, the pro-life movement appears to have been caught in inaction. Ohio Republicans have indeed failed to mount a solid counterattack to this abortion amendment. It is also true that the Republican Party should probably adopt the 15-week, or better yet, call it the three-and-a-half-month abortion compromise. If it’s all or nothing, the GOP will lose. In Virginia, the GOP presented a reasonable compromise. Although they did not win the Legislature, they prevented massive pro-abortion backlashes and won a seat in the Virginia Senate.
Glenn Youngkin threw himself into winning the Virginia Legislature. While it didn’t work out, it and his compromise on abortion didn’t spark the backlash that much of the media and Democrats claim. In any case, the fact that Virginia, which was becoming increasingly blue, did not swing en masse toward Democrats should attest to the wisdom of the three-and-a-half-month compromise.
Republicans really hoped Youngkin would win the state legislature. His early mobilization of the vote likely saved the GOP from bloodshed. There’s also a lesson here about voting early for the GOP. But aggressively pushing a compromise on abortion was not fatal to the GOP. They didn’t win again, but they gained a Senate seat and lost only four seats in the House, despite having an advantage in a state that has been trending blue for years.
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