Republicans got some hopeful news on Thursday when Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced he would do just that NO run for re-election. Democrats’ only hope of retaining their seat would be for a vulnerable incumbent to run again. Still, the race was thought to slightly favor Republicans and is now expected to favor it even more. The left-wing outlet Vox pointed this out, writing: “Joe Manchin is retiring, making the Democrats’ brutal 2024 Senate map even more brutal.“The article was also published in Friday edition RealClearPolitics (RCP).
Referring to West Virginia being a particularly Republican state where former and potential future President Donald Trump won easily in 2016 and 2020, the Vox article mentioned that “It’s hard to believe that any other potential Democratic nominee would be able to match Manchin Tam’s political power.”
However, Manchin’s seat is not the only one, as mentioned in the article. There is also Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH), and there are even more:
In addition to Manchin, two other Democratic senators represent states that Donald Trump won in 2020 and are also up for re-election in 2024. Both senators Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) are running again, but all of these states are very red and it will be quite arduous for Democrats to win them in a presidential year.
But the gaps run deeper. The only close states (according to presidential election results) where Republicans are defending seats are Florida and Texas, two states where Democrats have had few victories in recent years. Meanwhile, Democrats are also defending seats in five states that Joe Biden won very narrowly in 2020. These seats are currently held by Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), and Debbie Stabenow (D-MI).
While nothing should be taken for granted in 2024, especially regarding the course of last November’s mid-term races, next year does as hope for Republicans in the Senate. This is especially noticeable compared to what the Senate map looked like last year.
But again, this is Vox pointing out that things aren’t looking good for Tester and Brown:
Manchin’s seat will likely be lost due to retirement. But the best hope for Tester and Brown is that Republicans will messy AND primary division, and then a controversial candidate emerges. But even then, it would be arduous to counter the president’s attitude in their states, which have supported Trump quite solidly over the last two cycles.
These are three seats that, based on sheer partisanship, Democrats will have a tough time winning.
In Montana, Tim Sheehy is the candidate endorsed by fellow National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chairman Steve Daines. He may run against Republican Matt Rosendale, who faced and lost to Tester in 2018. There was some controversy, however, considering Rosendale revealed that he had “prayed” for a smaller Republican majority in the House of Representatives.
Ohio is holding a three-way primary with state Sen. Matt Dolan, businessman Bernie Moreno and Secretary of State Frank LaRose.
Not only do Republicans have good leverage, Democrats don’t. “Turning to GOP-held seats in the election, barring some disaster for the GOP candidate in a deep red state, Democrats have only two likely targets: Florida and Texas,” the article noted.
While this article raises concerns for Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), considering he narrowly won his 2018 race against former Representative Beto O’Rourke. However, it is worth noting that this is was considered the year of the blue wave.
Of course, who is on the president’s ticket can also make a huge difference, as mentioned in the article. Buckle up, 2024 is going to be crazy.
