The United States Capitol in Washington, Thursday, April 18, 2024 (Photo by Jennifer Shutt/States Newsroom)
WASHINGTON – Congress will look significantly different next year as several dozen of its members move to other political positions or retire, a number likely to grow as some of those who want to stay lose their re-election bids.
Turnover of at least 13% will be the highest in more than three decades, prompting a wave of up-to-date lawmakers who will see them as providing solutions to some of the country’s biggest problems.
However, the loss of institutional knowledge and negotiating experience of committee chairs and experienced legislators cannot be easily replaced.
Experts interviewed by States Newsroom said the escalate in freshman enrollment could lead to further concentration of power among congressional leaders and escalate the influence of lobbyists, although they added that there are also benefits.
“Serving in Congress is like any other job. It takes some time to learn how to get good at it,” said Molly Reynolds, vice president and director of management studies at the Brookings Institution. “Even members who have experience in state legislation will know some things about legislating, but they won’t know everything about Congress.”
New lawmakers often don’t understand more complicated procedures and practices, such as budget reconciliation, that Republicans used last year to pass their “big, beautiful” law.
“Last year we conducted a reconciliation process with many members who had never encountered a reconciliation bill before,” Reynolds said. “One consequence of this kind of inexperience is that it can further empower party leaders.”
But she added that it could be valuable “to have younger members who have a different time horizon for thinking about some of the issues facing the country.”
There is a generational change ahead of us
So far, 57 House lawmakers, 21 Democrats and 36 Republicans, have decided to run for another political office or retire. In the Senate, they say, four Democrats and seven Republicans are deciding to leave the Senate for one reason or another data compiled via Ballotpedia.
Jonathan K. Hanson, a professor of public policy at the University of Michigan, said it can take time for up-to-date members to become familiar with the political landscape well enough to understand when to listen to outside influences and when not to.
“You don’t come to Congress knowing how things work,” he said. “The more people who are fresh, a little green, don’t know how to navigate the institution, the more power special interests, lobbyists, etc. can have to influence the political process.”
Hanson also said that “some generational change is a good thing.”
He misses being a CEO
North Dakota Republican Sen. John Hoeven said many of his colleagues are deciding to run for governor, which he believes is a role beyond the one he currently holds.
“I was governor for 10 years before I came here. It’s the best job you can have. Better than the Senate,” Hoeven said. “I mean, it’s certainly an honor to serve in the Senate. But you just can’t get a better job than being governor. So it’s completely understandable.”
More than a dozen lawmakers are running for governor, including Alabama Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville, Colorado Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, Florida Republican Byron Donalds, Minnesota GOP Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Tennessee GOP Sen. Marsha Blackburn.
Virginia Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine said being a member of Congress can be arduous, causing some lawmakers to choose exits and other options.
“It’s not an easy job and people, you know, decide they had a good chapter and they want to do something else,” Kaine said. “I understand why people might make that call.”
South Dakota Republican Dusty Johnson, who is campaign to become governor of his home state, he said the institution changes every two years as more experienced members leave and up-to-date ones are elected to Congress.
“We always have a lot of feces in each cycle, certainly enough retreats to change the nature of the body,” Johnson said. “What’s more important is who will replace those who have left? And of course we won’t know until the primaries and generals are over.”
The primaries began in early March and will take place take place on different dates in every state by mid-September.
Michigan Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, who is scheduled to leave the country at the end of this year, said the impact of retirements will depend on the candidates Americans choose during November midterm elections.
“If people are elected who can solve problems practically and with common sense, it will be good,” Peters said. “If people are extremely partisan, both left and right, it won’t be good.”
Oklahoma Republican Tom Cole said the retirements of members of his own party could impact the election.
“Obviously, we’re losing some very good members. And as a rule, it’s easier to defend an incumbent than to win an open seat, especially in a difficult year,” Cole said. “But look, these things go in cycles. You just have to work through it.”
Travel, long working hours, little satisfaction
Hanson of the University of Michigan said more Republicans have decided to retire or seek another office because their party is likely to lose at least one chamber of Congress.
“They expect to lose control of the House of Representatives, and it’s not very encouraging to stay in the fight under these circumstances,” he said.
The increasing challenges of being a member of Congress are one reason some lawmakers plan to step away from their current roles, Hanson said.
“I really think this job, while it looks glamorous on the outside, is not that glamorous on the inside,” he said. “A lot of traveling. Even when you go home, you travel around your district. It makes family life arduous. During night voting sessions, the hours can be very long.
“And that would be one thing if it could give you a positive sense of contributing to the greater good, you know, the idea of public service.”
But, Hanson added, lawmakers currently don’t have much opportunity to pass legislation they think makes sense.
“So I think it’s safe to say that while some people feel interested in being in the middle of this kind of scene, a lot of people find it’s not a very rewarding thing to do,” he said.
Zachary Peskowitz, a political science professor at Emory University in Georgia, said having more than 65 lawmakers leaving Congress at once has both advantages and disadvantages.
“On the one hand, there are many members who have a lot of seniority, long service and a lot of expertise, but in some cases they are in their 70s and 80s,” he said. “There were also concerns about the involvement of some of them.”
Younger members, Peskowitz said, can “approach this job with more energy than you might get from someone who has been in Congress for decades.” New lawmakers also likely will have different perspectives and priorities, he said.
