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Research shows that rising health care costs may shift midterm voters toward Democrats

A KFF poll released on January 29, 2026, showed that voters are concerned about health care costs ahead of the parliamentary elections. (Photo: Yin Yang/Getty Images)

Americans believe their health care costs are rising faster than other household expenses, hold President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress accountable, and say the issue will factor into their votes in this year’s midterm elections, survey finds questionnaire published Thursday by the nonpartisan research organization KFF.

Three-quarters of voters surveyed, including a majority of Democrats, Republicans and independents, said the price of health care will have a greater or lesser impact on who they choose to vote for in this fall’s congressional elections.

Although voters of all parties said the issue would influence their votes, Democrats had a significant advantage when respondents were asked which party voters trusted on several issues related to health care costs.

Voters also blamed Trump and Republicans in Congress for allowing tax breaks related to the Affordable Care Act’s marketplace plans to expire. Two-thirds of respondents, including 72% of independents, said Congress was wrong to allow the credits to be phased out on January 1. Of those who said it was a mistake not to extend the loans, 80% said Trump or Republicans in Congress were most to blame.

“Republicans won the legislative battle to end the ACA’s enhanced tax credits, but that has made health care costs a bigger economic concern and voting issue, and Democrats are well-positioned to take advantage of that in the medium term,” KFF President and CEO Drew Altman said in a statement.

Costs of health insurance premiums

The cost of health insurance premiums and out-of-pocket expenses topped respondents’ list of economic concerns, with 66% of respondents saying they were worried about being able to afford care for themselves and their family. This group was larger than the group that found the same about all other categories, including housing, utilities and food.

Four in 10 independent lawmakers and two-thirds of Democrats surveyed said health care costs will have a “major impact” on who they vote for in the upcoming election, which will determine control of Congress for the final two years of Trump’s second term.

Among all voters, Democrats had a 13-point advantage over Republicans in who voters trusted to cover health care costs.

Democrats were favored by double digits on other health policy issues, with the only exception being who voters trust to lower prescription drug prices. Democrats still led Republicans on this issue, as Trump emphasized, but by a smaller 35-30% margin.

Emphasis on affordability

In the tight 2025 primary elections, Democratic candidates have found success with campaign messages focused on affordability, an issue Trump has also sought to address.

Thursday’s poll shows the issue may remain essential in this year’s elections. Half of respondents said their household expenses had “increased significantly.” The huge majority, 82%, said costs had increased at least “somewhat”. While the trend was lower for Republicans at 75%, this trend was true across the partisan spectrum of respondents.

A immense majority, 71%, said Trump had not focused enough on domestic issues, such as lowering health care costs.

This figure included 89% of Democrats, 76% of independents and 66% of Republicans who do not consider themselves supporters of Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. Among MAGA Republicans, 6 in 10 thought Trump was focusing enough on domestic issues.

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