Voters go to a polling place located in a school gymnasium in New Orleans. A up-to-date analysis shows Republicans could gain dozens of state legislative seats if the U.S. Supreme Court weakens the federal Voting Rights Act. (Photo: Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
A up-to-date analysis shows Republicans could gain nearly 200 state legislative seats across the South if the U.S. Supreme Court strikes down a key provision of the federal Voting Rights Act.
Most of the gains would be concentrated in 10 GOP-controlled state legislatures in Southern states, in partnership with the Black Voters Matter Fund, which advocates on behalf of black voters, according to an analysis by Fair Fight Action, a Georgia-based progressive voting rights group.
The analysis, presented in report released Monday by these groups underscores anxiety among progressives over the potential consequences of the Supreme Court’s upcoming decision in a case known as Louisiana v. Callais. While the case focuses on the constitutionality of Louisiana’s congressional map, the impact of the decision could extend to statehouses across the country.
A conservative majority on the Supreme Court appears likely to seriously weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, the landmark 1965 Civil Rights Act that prohibits racial discrimination in voting access. Section 2 limits racial gerrymandering and has so far restricted lawmakers’ power to draw districts that dilute the voting power of racial minority voters.
A sweeping court decision could give state lawmakers more freedom to draw congressional and state legislative districts that dilute the power of minority voters, as well as districts for local governments such as county commissions, city councils and school boards. In October, the judges held an oral hearing; the decision may be made at any time.
At the state legislative level, a court ruling overturning Section 2 could result in Democrats losing about 191 seats, according to an analysis that examined how state legislative districts could be redrawed if Section 2 were not in place. Most of these seats are now held by black lawmakers in districts where minority voters make up the majority of residents.
“This deals a fatal blow to Black representation in the South,” Fair Fight Action CEO Lauren Groh-Wargo said in an interview.
The total number of state legislative districts in 10 Southern states with a majority of Black or Latino voters could drop from 342 to 202. Those states are Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas.
Some Republican states argue that courts have interpreted Section 2 protections too broadly and, as a result, have unfairly restricted lawmakers’ ability to draw favorable maps.
Alabama and 13 other GOP states said in a brief filed with the Supreme Court earlier this year that Section 2 had been turned into “the proverbial golden hammer wielded by plaintiffs and courts in their perpetual search for the nail.”
If the Supreme Court weakens the Voting Rights Act, it is unclear whether state legislatures will seek to redraw state legislative districts mid-decade. Electoral districts are usually changed every 10 years after the census.
At the federal level previous analysis Republicans could gain an additional 19 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives if Section 2 protections were removed, according to Fair Fight Action and the Black Voters Matter Fund.
Although several states have adopted up-to-date congressional maps already this year, the efforts have proven highly controversial. Some states, such as Indiana and Kansas, have abandoned or rejected them for now.
State reporter Jonathan Shorman you can arrive at jshorman@stateline.org.
This story was originally produced by State linewhich is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network that includes the Ohio Capital Journal and is supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity.
