Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., left, with Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., points to a poster showing rising medical costs if Congress allows tax credits under the Affordable Care Act to expire while talking to reporters after the Democratic policy luncheon at the U.S. Capitol on Oct. 15, 2025, in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON — Congress has about two months to reach a bipartisan agreement on curbing rising health insurance costs if lawmakers want to avoid another government shutdown.
This Herculean task would be arduous under the best of circumstances, but it has become much more arduous as lawmakers have spent the last 43 days criticizing each other rather than building the trust that is typically needed for immense deals. Democrats have maintained they want to address skyrocketing premiums for individual health care plans, while Republicans have insisted those talks need to take place while the government is open.
At the same time, Congress leaders will try to complete work on nine bills on year-round financing of the government, which were to come into force before October 1 but were not included in the package reopening the government.
Congress must pass all of these bills or any other stopgap measure before the fresh Jan. 30 deadline, regardless of how good or disastrous the talks on the health care bill are.
The two-track negotiations will force party leaders to compromise on issues they would rather not, especially as next November’s midterm elections approach.
The early signs were not good.
House Speaker Mike Johnson said during a Wednesday evening news conference that the Affordable Care Act’s enhanced tax credits, which expire at the end of the year, are “bullshit” and that “Republicans would demand a lot of reforms” before agreeing to extend them in any way.
“We currently have 433 members of the House of Representatives. There are a lot of opinions in this building. And certainly a lot of opinions on our side about how to fix health care and make it more affordable. I have to let this process play out,” said Johnson, R-La.
While Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D. pledged to hold a vote on the health care bill before the end of December to end the shutdown, Johnson avoids giving a timetable for when he will introduce similar legislation.
President Donald Trump, beyond hurling insults at Democrats, has largely stayed on the sidelines of the shutdown fight, though he has suggested that funds used for tax breaks should somehow go directly to individuals rather than immense insurance companies.
Pessimism towards progress
The shutdown has highlighted stark differences between Republicans and Democrats on health care as insurance prices continue to rise, forcing millions of Americans to choose between taking care of themselves or ruining their budgets, States Newsroom found in interviews with members of Congress.
GOP leaders stuck together throughout the funding lapse and did not negotiate on the expiring ACA marketplace tax breaks or anything else.
Now that it’s over, Republicans will have to propose something.
Connecticut Rep. Rosa DeLauro, the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, said she thought Congress “will likely be in the same place we are now on January 30.”
“We have two sides here, two sides,” DeLauro said. “We’ve had serious negotiations back and forth in the past, and that’s what we need to do, but that’s not happening.”
Although Republicans have unified control of the government, major legislation needs the support of at least 60 senators to advance in that chamber. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, meaning at least some Democrats must support the bill for it to pass.
DeLauro did not rule out another shutdown, saying Democrats plan to take the next few months “one day at a time” closely watching what Republicans are willing to do on the nine year-long appropriations bills and health care costs.
Maryland Democratic Rep. Steny Hoyer, a former House majority leader and senior member of the Appropriations Committee, said Republican leaders holding the chamber in recess for nearly two months before and during the shutdown significantly delayed work on year-round government funding bills.
Hoyer said the scheduling decision was a clear “indication that the company was not interested in solving the problem.”
“If they did, their members would be working on appropriations bills here,” Hoyer said. “And the only way you’re going to finally solve this problem is to pass appropriations bills.”
Hoyer said the real question facing Congress now is not whether there is time to reach an agreement on the remaining nine government spending bills, but whether there is the will to make the necessary compromises.
Untangling your expense accounts
The a spending package that reopened the government included three of a dozen year-round bills, funding for the Department of Agriculture, the Food and Drug Administration, the Legislative Branch, military construction projects and the Department of Veterans Affairs.
Tackling the remaining appropriations bills will be much more arduous, especially since the House and Senate have yet to agree on how much they want to spend on thousands of programs. Trump proposed grave cuts on multiple programs in his budget request earlier this year, which Democrats vehemently opposed.
Bills related to defense, homeland security, labor, HHS education and state-foreign operations will be among the more arduous to settle.
Congress could always rely on another stopgap spending bill to keep funding relatively constant for departments and agencies not covered by the full-year bill before January 30. But lawmakers will need bipartisan support to advance in the Senate.
Washington Democratic Rep. Pramila Jayapal, former chairwoman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said Republicans don’t realize how much Americans struggle with the cost of living, including health insurance and health care costs.
“My constituents have already told me that they are choosing between health insurance and a house to live in, and they will choose this house,” Jayapal said.
Whether a partial government shutdown begins in early 2026 will likely depend on whether Republican lawmakers in swing districts force bipartisanship on the health care bill.
“I really don’t know,” Jayapal said. “I think it’s up to these vulnerable Republicans in the House of Representatives who won’t be able to go back to their constituents without telling them that they’ve done something on health care.”
Political juice and backbone
Democratic Rep. Melanie Stansbury of New Mexico said she wouldn’t be surprised if Congress is unable to reach an agreement on government funding and ends in a partial shutdown by February.
“Do I think Republicans have enough political clout to get through … the rest of the budget bills and the health care deal? No,” Stansbury said.
She added that she hopes a handful of Republicans will decide to join Democrats on a discharge bill that would force a majority vote on a bill extending ACA marketplace subsidies for three years.
“We need to find some brave Republicans who still have the backbone and courage to stand up to this administration and actually care about their voters,” Stansbury said.
However, any bipartisan deal to extend health care tax credits appears strained, as House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries blasted Republicans as having “zero credibility on this issue.”
He pointed out that Republicans have tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act several times, including their last attempt in 2017 when GOP Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine and the behind schedule John McCain of Arizona crossed party lines by voting against repealing the 2010 law.
“There is no evidence that they are serious about extending tax credits under the Affordable Care Act,” said Jeffries of New York. “Republicans have no interest in fixing the health care crisis they created.”
“There’s no point in wasting 41 days on a cave.”
With Democrats controlling both chambers, the short-lived health care subsidies were originally passed as part of the 2021 Covid-19 American Rescue Plan for two years.
With Democrats still in control of both chambers, lawmakers approved the Inflation Reduction Act, the Biden administration’s signature climate policy bill for 2022, which extended health care subsidies for three years, through the end of December 2025.
The outcome of the just-ended shutdown is shaping the views of some House Democrats.
Virginia Democratic Rep. Bobby Scott said that if there is a fresh shutdown in February, Senate Democrats will have to decide whether they will “fail again or at least engage in negotiations.”
“When (Senate) Democrats say, ‘Our strategy didn’t work,’ it didn’t work because they assumed you would fail, which you just proved,” Scott told States Newsroom. “Their strategy worked – trying to get them to negotiate and talk to you doesn’t work because they know you’re going to fall.”
Scott said there was “no point in spending 41 days bending over backwards,” pointing to eight members of the Senate Democratic Caucus who have broken ranks advance AND confirm later government reopening package.
“Why don’t you just give in at the beginning, on February 2?” he said. “If the Republican strategy is, ‘We won’t negotiate at all or you’ll cave,’ you have to show them you won’t cave, and then you can start a discussion.”
Scott said the same health care problems will continue if nothing happens by the Jan. 30 funding deadline for the package.
“By then we will know that several million people do not have health insurance and that rural hospitals are starting to suffer,” Scott said.
Delaware Democratic Rep. Sarah McBride said that “from now until November 2026 and beyond, we will continue to talk about health care and fight for health care.”
“I think what you’ve seen over the last few months will continue to be seen in November, and then, God willing, once we’re in the majority, we’ll do everything we can to reverse those cuts, restore care, and expand access to care,” she said.
