The trumpets spill in the south, Clinton will almost seal the contract for Democrats

Super Tuesday passed and disappeared. Trump and Clinton dominated the South, and the billionaire Magnat on the right track became a republican nominated, while Clinton fought in the central and western part of the country; Sanders won Colorado, Oklahoma and Minnesota (of course Vermont won). Please read a detailed Guy analysis published earlier this morning, where he explains that while Trump had a good night, he did not win most of the delegates to get. It also gives a summary of Rubio, Cruz, Democrats and where races from here. In the case of GOP, the spoiler warning: Cleveland will be blood.

Winning victory– It was expected that Mr. Trump went through most of the South. In Texas, Senator Ted Cruz detained Trumpmentum in a very necessary victory for a conservative fire brand. Trump also lost Oklahoma and Alaska in Cruz. However, the northern invasion of Trump brought some dividends, winning Vermont and Massachusetts competitions. According to FivethirtyeightThe billionaire magnate is on the right track To get the nomination. As mentioned earlier, the bastion of support – Epangelics Cruza and very conservative voters – Begin to Piotr; Rubio must manage well on March 15-when the competition became the winner to catch up in Trump’s delegates. The problem is that Trump is also well probed in most of these competitions. About 20 percent of republican voters have already decided I feel betrayed by GOP. It bodes well for the candidate outside, Like Trumpwho rode a wave of anger last night. However, Sean Davis z federalist He noticed that while people talk about the critical basic series of March 15 (367 delegates), There are 347 delegates in the game From time to time.

This is not over it-Guy moved it about democrats. Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT) can say that he goes to the convention, but this will take something in the field of Paranormal to change this nomination from Clinton, According to to Harry Entena Fivethirtyeight. The Clinton dam with black democrats looked very mighty in Nevada and Southern Carolina’s competitions, but this was clearly confirmed by last night: she is not broken for Sanders. They do not even consider jumping a ship for Sanders, although many of them like what they have to say – they are just beginning to explore the disheveled democratic socialist.

Clinton’s coalition– –Regarding black votersClinton won 80 percent of them in Georgia; 90 percent in Alabama; 80 percent in Tennessee; 90 percent in Arkansas; And he won 80 percent In Texas. In some of these states, such as Georgia and Alabama, blacks constitute almost half of the democratic electorate. Clinton’s problems with women voters seem almost evaporated. She won women voters in a ratio of two to one in Virginia and Texas; Two -thirds of them in Tennessee; And three quarters of them in Alabama. Sanders also dominated with Latinos in Texas, showing that he quickly closes the areas in which Senator Vermont can make progress in his nomination (via via NOW):

Over 90 percent of Clinton’s voters want a candidate with political experience, and four out of 10, let’s say that there is the quality they are looking for with the candidate. Two -thirds of her voters want to continue the policy of President Barack Obama, and not change in a more liberal direction. And, as in the case of Trump, 6 out of 10 supporters stood in the head over a month ago. Almost two -thirds of her supporters are women, and two -thirds 45 or older.

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In Texas, where a third of voters was Latin, 7 out of 10 of them voted for Clinton.

Clinton made a great Tuesday with Young-Iish voters (30-44), almost 6 in 10 of them supported Clinton. Sanders, on the other hand, led among all voters under 45 in the first three competitions of the year, in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.

Yes, Sanders won in Colorado, Oklahomie and Minnesota, but it still plays in the narrative that his success occurs in states where electorates are less diverse; A problem that many said that it would be a problem for him when the basic ones move south. Before Sanders could find an area that organizes a return, like the West, it may be too delayed – as Clinton’s advantage in delegates may become insurmountable. As for problemsIt’s the same elderly with the former first lady. White men are not very delighted with her, and teenage people (and those who want an truthful and trustworthy candidate) do not seem to be delighted with the former secretary of state. Nevertheless, Sanders stands in the face of a bruise fight if he wants to seriously beat Clinton:

When I he wrote on Saturday That Clinton was on the road to winning the democratic nomination, I predicted that she won 508 delegates on Tuesday. Getting exact sums of delegates will take some time, but David Wasserman David Wasserman Clinton projects that will win over 500 delegates. It will give her an advantage of about 200 promised delegates, not counting her great advantage among her Superdelegates.

This lead is almost insurmountable. Democrats grant delegates proportionally, which means that Sanders would have to win great margins in other states to catch up. He did not see this kind of victories outside his family state Vermont and Next-Door New Hampshire. Consider the case of Massachusetts: My colleague Nate Silver model He had Sanders won a state of 11 percentage points if the race was related to the country and 3 points based on the average survey last week. Instead, Sanders lost almost 2 percentage points.

Sanders needs a fundamental change in the race.

Unfortunately, for him it is already a two-seater-not like a republican side, in which we wonder how the race can change if one of the candidates has resigned. Existing votes on the democratic side quite predictable based on demographic data; It just so happens that this demographic data favors Clinton.

Sanders, maybe it’s not surprising, pointed to it He will continue to fight for voices throughout the country. But for every win that can get mainly in the White States, Clinton will be in the direction of the nomination with probable victories in the United States such as Michigan AND Florida. Mathematics indicates that Clinton will eventually win the nomination with relative ease.

Trump stop-No, this ship could already flow out. Donald is best to win the nomination, and the movement to stop the eccentric billionaire remains broken, enabling his march towards victory. As Amy Walter from Cook political report wrote#NEVERTRUMP does not work. In addition, she added that Rubio had to put mighty in many states, while in some competitions he performed decently, he still finished the night in third place regarding the number of delegates. This is not the best painting item as a person who can defeat Trump. At the same time, his victory in Minnesota erases the attack “he has never won” from those who do not support his candidacy. Again, it may not be enough, too delayed for Rubio, whose political ambitions could end if he lost Florida on March 15. However, his campaign promises to take his fight all the way to the convention. Now Anti -Trum forces They go down to Florida For what seems to be the last position. Despite this, both Cruz and Rubio have no reason to give up because they have achieved what they need to do with their campaigns.

Kasicha’s coefficient-Sablyment Republicans Apparently they are furious that the governor of Ohio John Kasich is still in the race, even though they need to remain, to block Trump in front of Ohio delegates on March 15. He puts an anti -trump coalition in a position that requires an endless amount of Advil: they need a governor to give up further consolidation of anti -trump voting, but as far as he is the best man who has defeated Trump in Buckey. If this happens, it may deny that the delegates need Trump to simply get the nomination – and GOP can venture into the disputed territory during the convention. Despite this, Kasich costing Rubio Virginia, Arkansas and Vermont must have the impression of these fans.

Carson’s meeting with a doctor– He finally saw the featherlight. The neurosurgeon apparently heard the voices of “My the People” and these words “get out”. Carson said there is no way to win and expected he would be resigned soon.

Travel journal– By National JournalSanders will be in Portland, Maine; Clinton will be in New York; Kasich and Rubio will be in Michigan; And Cruz is in Kansas.

Future battles– March 5 Democrats will have basic competitions in Kansas, NebraSka and Louisiana; Republicans will withdraw him in Kansas, Louisiana and Maine.

March 6 – Democrats in Maine; Republicans have their own basic one in Puerto Rico.