As we said this morning, it is now obvious that Ted Cruz appeared as the only conservative alternative to Donald Trump, beating the controversial billionaire in Iów, Texas, Oklahomie, Alaska, Kansas, Maine and Idaho. The only other Republican who actually won any basic competitions is Marco Rubio – who captured Minnesota and Puerto Rico among a lot of sturdy finishes, but whose momentum seems to be crushed over the past week. After another Easter, for Trump, Cruz is arguing more fervently and convincing than ever that he is the only claimant in the race that can defeat Trump about the nomination. His novel endorser, Carly Fiorina, has the same point. While mathematics confirms its claim, the same set of data indicates that Cruz’s path to victory remains quite feeble. Consider three scenarios:
(1) Rally Rubio and Kasich to win in Florida and Ohio. If this scenario (Longshot?) Complete, the GOP field will refuse Donald Trump 165 a critical winner-Way-All-all delegaty and would throw a real blow to his “partitioning image.” The #NEVERTRUMP movement would gain a couple again and the likelihood of the contested convention It will improve dramatically. If Trump fails to win most of the delegates, it is completely possible that Cruz can or I would do Appears as a “consensus” among the chaos of Cleveland: he would be seen as acceptable to most conservatives, less reckless and unpredictable than Trump to the establishment, and sufficiently populist to recognize political currents that sent Trump’s growth. Given that Cruz is most likely and quite possible JustThe path to the nomination runs through the convention, it was a bit surprising when the candidate and his allies condemning this idea So much disputed convention. This rhetoric can get several brief -term populist points, but they can be forced to eat their words. Remember that the questioned convention happens only when Voters do it this way. Currently, about 65 percent of the main GOP voters have made voting cards for candidates other than Donald Trump and its national conduct
he stagnated Despite his victory of the drum and the growing number of delegates.
(2) Rubio loses Florida, but Kasich wins Ohio. The CRUZ campaign organized a great show of playing in Florida, despite the fact that the polls show that Texan has no chance of winning a prize affluent in the delegate. Some speculated that he was trying to lead Trump voters to keep the competition in Rubio, but SuperPac ads attack Rubio, Carly’s announcement in Miami i Such comments Explain that Team Cruz decided to prioritize to kill his rival from Floridia:
@tedcruz employee: “We accept Florida @realdonaldtrump To get @marcorubio Go out and move your voters to us. ” #Floridaprimary
– Trey Hardin (@Treyhardin16) March 8, 2016
It seems that the idea to convey 99 delegates to Trump on a silver plate to win the field and accuse the match one to one of the Frontrunner. Two novel polls show Cruz (and Rubio) leading Trump According to significant margins among republican voters. Complication: If John Kasich serves in Ohio, he will have any reason to stay in the race. He finally won the main and gigantic. Roszczel to a real rush, advertising his positive approach “adults in peace” as a critical presence in the race. The delegate swells, additionally strengthening the at least influential role in the convention (which he was to talk). He would have a very discussed “company line” for himself, with more conservative Rubio outside the picture. And he has already shown the ability to withstand a lot of pressure to give up. Considering his attitude without an album and a deep hostility between Rubio and Cruza camps (which can get worse if Cruz is seen as a Trump’s assistant to sabotaging Rubio), Kasich would probably find himself well to inherit a gigantic piece of Rubio fans in future competitions. The plant that Cruz collects the dominant majority of Rubio voters, and Kasich still seems to be risky in the race. And if Cruz and Kasich still dilute anti -peak voting,
You know who Benefits, especially in the winner’s countries-all.
(3) Rubio and Kasich lose their home states. Based on Last pollThis scenario now seems quite likely, If not likely. The good news for Cruz is that he will finally get a two -seater race he desired for many weeks. The bad news is that Trump would simply build a huge delegate, winning two of the most vital stations of the swing in the country. Frontrunner would probably secure delegates in Missouri, Illinois and North Carolina, which makes him a clear winner of “Super Duper Tuesday”. His scenario of delegates would not only look like a much more diverse range of media, he would probably turn towards throwing him as an alleged republican nominated, especially with a number of Trump -friendly states (a few with a few with the participation of several with the participation Several with a few with the participation of several with the participation of several with the participation of several. some form of proportional allocation) lying in front of us. Between the effect with fashion and the persistent fighting of Cruz for a performance among some voting blocks, the view that he suddenly began to stamp Trump everywhere in a double race, he feels again …risky. Not necessarily unthinkable, but it’s not certain. If so, he can be able to fight Trump to Cleveland, already condemning the idea of ​​the contested convention.
In brief, Ted Cruz is currently clearly taking the best place, definitely in the non -rummy field. But his ability to secure republican nomination can lie very well at the disputed convention, in which Trump enters with a relatively petite number of delegates. This is
They will most likely occur In the first scenario described above, which the Cruz campaign and allies seem to employ to exclude. And the alternative frames in which Cruz overcomes Trump by most nominated delegates, looks like a real episode at the moment of the race, because it is based on many things that break the right way for Texans. Time works briefly. Trump is not unstoppable yet, but it is approaching. With the life of one option Hail Mary a long time ago, it’s time lift. Tick ​​Tock:
Idea: Rubio calls Cruz as soon as possible. A common presser pt, Barnstorm together, calling for voting for the Lord in Florida (refuse DT 99 dels), Lord of the weddings to hang 3/16.
– Guy Benson (@Guypbenson) March 9, 2016
Parting thought: If That’s trueWould Rubio support Cruz immediately? And taking into account many The early voices that Rubio had already been in Florida, would it not make much strategic sense to go with my above suggestion?
Peak @marcorubio Donors say that with the exception of a positive survey, the senator will suspend his campaign before the FLA.https://t.co/irjkevdd0
– Charles Gasparino (@cgasparino) March 9, 2016
Updates:
Exclusive: Ted Cruz says @thegynkelly That everything is fine with a questioned convention.https://t.co/ulwke5blzy
– Fox & Friends (@Foxandfriends) March 9, 2016
And for what is worth:
As I advise me @Marcorubio connect forces with @Tedcruz And announce an alliance for tomorrow’s mass audience: pic.twitter.com/6kntw9OKYW
– Guy Benson (@Guypbenson) March 9, 2016
