After the huge win of Donald Trump in Southern Carolina, with Bush’s exit, it is a really three -person race between Trump, Cruz and Rubio. Bush’s exit certainly helps Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL); Millions that have been issued to weaken him by Bush’s law to the creation of PAC, stop – but the governor Ohio John Kasich and Dr. Ben Carson will remain in the race. As Guy noted in his analysis, the time for anti -peak voting to connect around one candidate quickly closes:
With Ben Carson and John Kasich For the time being, time begins to work briefly in search of a “non-trump” uniting the alternative candidate. Rubio and Cruz work strenuous to demand this coat, but if they both still fight in this pursuit, they can ultimately guarantee Trump’s victory. He must give something and soon. If Trump overcomes Cruz in Texas and Rubio in Florida (both are very real possibilities), then curtains for both adolescent conservative senators may be very good.
However, let’s not receive all the extermination and darkness yet (although the defeat in Florida may be death). There is a precedent for the nominees who lose the key competitions of early voting, who have still won the nomination, and Rubio still has many opportunities to win the swath of delegates and composed the GOP plant, which is worth supporting. Hitch is Kasich’s factor. Ohio governor must go and Rubio He must start winning by March 15. Just before Christmas, Nate Cohn mentioned that Rubio could go in water and probably win the nomination. Yes, a lot has changed, but he still notices that Rubio has a lot of space for height, even if Cruz Nabs Iowa and Trump complements New Hampshire, which he wrote as hypothetical.
What’s more, Cohn noticed the danger of Rubio’s position in New Hampshire (at that time), where Bush, Christie and Kasich led. Kasich took second place and Bush is fourth (barely). Rubio took the disappointing fifth, but Christie and Bush are no longer factors, approaching what Cohn described as a “natural candidate” for those who do not want Trump to win and destroy the party brand. At the same time, Trump changed water, considering that he had a wide election appeal regarding age, levels of education and income ranges. He overcame evangelical voting in southern Carolina, while Cruz has solemn thinking about his future, because GOP Primary becomes a less evangelical voter -oriented voter after Super Tuesday:
Mr. Rubio would have to hold on until March 8, especially on March 15, especially on March 15, because he probably wouldn’t win too much.
The republican basic calendar is burdened with relatively conservative and southern states, which makes it very challenging for the candidate in the position of Mr. Rubio for early winning.
There is a precedent for the candidate to wait for a more favorable stage of the calendar, and this candidate is also someone who has not won Iowa or New Hampshire: Bill Clinton. He won only three of the first 14 competitions before the Super Tuesday in 1992, when the South voted for a privileged son with a huge margin.
To manage something similar, Mr. Rubio would have to deal well in relatively favorable states, such as Nevada, Massachusetts, Colorado, Vermont and Virginia. He would have to do well enough to remain competitive in the strenuous mathematics of the delegate, preventing Mr. Trump or Mr. Cruz from gathering the immense majority of delegates.
From the point of view of delegates, he would have to start winning on March 15. He would count on Florida, his winner-we-all home state, and or ohio, another winner of everything, or Illinois, who has the unusual rules of the delegate, which makes it quite close to the winner, if the candidate wins because of a modest margin .
If he won Florida and Illinois or Ohio (or both), he would enter the second half of the basic season in a reasonable position. He would not be sure of victory (or even most delegates), but the mainstream of the Republican party will probably see that he was worth investing.
So in many areas Rubio is working on more favorable conditions (like Bush abandoning), but let’s be damp blankets for a second. Repeating the Guy point, if Trump defeats Rubio in Florida (and takes all 99 delegates), let’s direct the billionaire magnate for a second: it can be Total disaster. On the Kasich front, he must make Rubio boost his chances, but in some respects he must hope that Mr. Kasich will remain in the race to Ohio Primary. At the weekend, Hill AB Stoddard noticed that Kasich running in Ohio prevents Trump from sweeping the state.
New York magazine Jonathan Chait also managed The question from South Carolina rushed to Cruz to Rubio. We all know that Cruz is losing now, considering that he failed to gain a state that seemed fertile, which launched Cruzmania with the Evangelical and conservative voters. It didn’t happen. But if Rubio can’t win southern Carolina, elsewhere is beneficial?
Positively, Rubio was still doing well in southern Carolina, exceeding 20 percent of the votes. With many southern basic states Having 20 percent of the thresholds On March 1, he is ready to pick up some delegates and I hope that it will start to gain more pace when we are approaching Florida:
Mr Bush’s exit is enough to win tonight for Mr. Rubio, but the participation of Mr. Rubio in the vote is also impressive. Most importantly, he cleaned 20 percent of the votes – the key threshold of the delegate for many southern states on Super Tuesday (although not South Karolina). If he cannot exceed this number in states such as Alabama, Texas, Georgia and Tennessee, he will not receive any delegates in these states. This is a good sign that it is close or above this number even after the flaws of the divided field and after a tender show in New Hampshire.
Nevertheless, Cohn added that saving should enter the Rubio camp; They will collect delegates on March 1, but they should focus on the states that he could win straight after the Super Tuesday to boost their chances of winning the nomination. He noticed that Rubio may lose 70 delegates from the South, but to make up for Illinois, Ohio or Florida on March 15, when the competition becomes the winner. Still Trump’s factor appears dangerously close and It’s doubtful If Rubio can do well enough to break away from the rest of the field, exceed Trump and get the 2016 nomination in 2012:
Assuming that Mr. Rubio, Mr. Cruz and the support of Mr. Trump, roughly followed the demographic pattern with New Hampshire and Iowa, Mr. Rubio could win even most delegates, if he won about 24 percent of the votes on Super on Tuesday, and then they did it and also Mitt Romney in 2012 for the rest of the basic season.
The fact that Mr. Rubio did not do as well as Mr. Romney so far is the reason to question whether he would do it later.
There are many questions and we won’t see many answers until the voting ends. There is a way for Rubio to win this competition through the outputs of other candidates-Rubio himself needs to win a key winner-all that could break Trump. This is a narrow path, but if he manages to do it, it would certainly be another chapter in this crazy and unpredictable election cycle. Another scenario is that we are going to an intermediary convention, which becomes more likely if Kasich wins Ohio. There are also nearly 100 undeniable delegates from northern Dakota, Wyoming and Color Who will remain in this way for now, because these countries have decided that they do not keep clubs this year.
In the meantime, Rubio and Cruz They are intended for this. Let blood sports start.
