In 2008, Barack Obama’s great victories in February Primary – Georgia, Illinois, Maryland, Virginia and Wisconsin – gave him an insurmountable delegate for the delegate for the democratic nomination. In 2012, the victory of Mitt Romney in Florida (technically January 31) and Michigan sent him on the way to the republican nomination.
This year, with the announced schedule, there are several February competitions to pass. But republican basic in southern Carolina and democratic clubs in Nevada in February 20, February 20, make this cycle look, even if it is not entirely clear who will be the winner.
Let’s start with Democrats. Hillary Clinton won on Bernie Sanders, 53 percent to 47 percent, in Nevada. It was identical to its percentage of voting against Obama in 2008.
As in Iowa and with a wide margin in New Hampshire, Clinton lost among white voters. According to the preliminary survey, she won because 76 percent of the black voters supported her.
This is a lower percentage than Obama wore in 2008, but it is more than in some polls. She guarantees her victory in South Carolina this Saturday and many subsequent wins on March 1 in the southern states with half -black electorates.
Internal are not a mirror in 2008. About 80 percent of newborn voters are against her, and Latinos could vote for Sanders (although the input survey may be incorrect). But Clinton now works better among high -income democrats (they do not like 77 percent of tax rates) and postgraduate (probably thanks to her support for the teacher).
The result is the same: other long, demanding slogan for nomination, but with Clinton’s victory. And this time love: Democratic turnout fell from 2008 in Iowa and New Hampshire, and the super-analyst Nevada Jon Ralston says that it fell from 120,000 to 80,000. All this assumes that the FBI does not weigh.
Republican attendance increased by 22 percent compared to 2012 in southern Carolina; It was similar in Iowa (54 percent) and New Hampshire (14 percent). Donald Trump determined that his support is a high floor-one fourth in Iowa and one-third in New Hampshire and South Carolina. This is enough to give him victory in the competitions of many candidates.
But Trump may also have a relatively low ceiling. So his nomination chances are far below 100 percent. This will be tested in southern competitions on Tuesday (March 1), Michigan Primary (March 8) and the winner-we-all (or winner-quiekacz-zystko) in Florida, Ohio and Illinois on March 15.
Marco Rubio bounced off the bad finish in New Hampshire to take second place in southern Carolina. He is clearly the best positioned pretender. It reflects most of the supporters of Jeb Bush and is widely acceptable to almost all segments of the Republican electorate.
Evangelical Christians constituted 72 percent of republican voters from southern Carolina. Among them, Trump received 33 percent. Only 27 percent of evangelical votes went to Ted Cruz, which presented his well -organized campaign especially to evangelicals. This is not a good sign for Cruz in the southern states on March 1. And Cruz received only 13 percent among the inverage, who after March 1 will be a much larger part of the main voters.
The mathematics delegate also hurts Cruz. He can certainly win some delegates in the proportional representation of the Southern States. But he will have difficulty in the winner of all Northern States and Florida.
Rubio defeated Trump among university graduates and took a powerful second among voters under 45 years aged, those with high income and those who call themselves “somewhat conservative” or “moderate”. In addition, he got a solid 22 percent among evangelicals, only five points per cruz. If he manages to pick up Bush’s votes and the side line of John Kasich, he can break the Trump floor and perhaps crossing what turned out to be the Trump’s ceiling.
Setting up rep. Treya Gowda, senator Tim Scott and Governor Nikki Haley – the rainbow band – certainly helped Rubio in southern Carolina, while others will come. Nevada Senator Dean Heller kidnapped his state on Sunday, two days before the Republican Club. Trump is right that Rubio will not inherit everything support for abandonment. But now it looks like the Trump-Rubi-Cruz three-sided race, and Cruz is most exposed to fall.
Until now, only 1.2 million Republicans and 500,000 Democrats voted in 323 million people. But the shape, if not the results, the nomination breeds of both parties have been clearly explained.
