Does the great win of Donald Trump in Nevada clubs mean he is an inevitable republican candidate? He became a favorite and could speed up the first winner’s nomination-I got to all leaves on March 15. But it is not inevitable that he will be nominated. The question is how others can prevent it.
Trump won 46 percent in Nevada; Marco Rubio won 24 percent, and Ted Cruz won 21 percent. This is in line with the survey that showed that Nevada is one of Trump’s best states.
In February, surveys in nine states of March 1 are gained less, from 23 to 34 percent. And his final interest was a bit under his number of surveys. So he could lose even in the competitions of three candidates.
But each of the three contenders faces solemn challenges, in this main state state in the next three weeks: Ted Cruz in Texas on March 1; Marco Rubio in Florida March 15 and John Kasich in Ohio, also on March 15.
Can we see the revival of Cruz? Ted Cruz lost very conservative voters with Trump in Nevada and Evangelical there and in South Carolina. He ran only 1 point in front of Rubio among the evangelicals in Nevada and 5 points in southern Carolina. These are groups that, if he hoped, will assist him win, as in Iowa. But he did not win a great Tuesday in the southern basic period on March 1 without improving these numbers.
His best opportunity is his family state in Texas. But he won only one election there, in 2012, and since then he focused on national policy, and he did not get acquainted with his 27 million voters better. In February, voters have only a few points over Trump, and in one survey Rubio is only 4 percent. It seems that he will not reach 50 percent, which would give him all 155 delegates in Texas.
Lack of great victory in Texas, Cruza’s prospects look gloomy. So far, his percentage among the abnormal participation of the main voters after March 1-out of 19, 8, 13 and 18. Just for third place, not more.
What about Rubio’s growth? In Iów, South Carolina and Nevada, Marco Rubio showed confirming the appeal to high-income voters and education in studies that gave Mitt Romney a nomination in 2012. This makes him competitive in Virginia and Georgia on March 1.
But first of all, he needs the winner of Florida-Take-ALL, with 99 delegates, March 15. Like Cruz, he won only one election there in 2010, and focused on national issues, since then not in close contact with his 20 million ingredients.
Rubio can certainly improve his delicate shows in polls in Florida, none taken after January 21, which shows 18 percent for candidates who left the race, including the former Gova. Jeb Bush. Wealthy, voters with high education joined Mitt Romney to a 46 % win in the high defender of 2012.
But Rubio seems determined not to rely, like Romney, on a negative campaign against his main opponent. “I don’t have any voters who begging me to attack anyone,” said Nevada in the morning. “I’m not in this race to attack any republican.”
Instead, it can emphasize the selection and domestic polls that show that it runs better than Trump or Cruz against Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. One good news for him from Nevada: 25 percent of voters “can win in November” as the reason for their voice, about a double percentage in New Hampshire and Southern Carolina. Look for him to speak a lot about the electoral possibility.
Is there an opening of Kasich? In New Hampshire, John Kasich found a constituency immense enough for 16 percent of the second place. Can he find a different one? Not in Massachusetts or Vermont on March 1 they suggest surveys of several registered Republicans. Not in Michigan on March 8, unless he overtakes the number of polls.
And maybe not in his hometown of Ohio, with the winner-widespread for 66 delegates on March 15. In one of 2016, he shows that he follows Trump by 5 points. The MSNBC survey shows about half of the second choice of Kasich’s voters is Rubio and currently exhausted Bush. Does Kasich still go back for three weeks to go home? Will Rubio assist and (probably) assist and (probably)?
Will Super Pac come to the rescue? Great donors, whose super pac with a value of $ 100 million did not assist Jeb Bush, do not seem interested in the deconstruction of Donald Trump. Attacking him for political incorrectness and violation of conservative orthodoxy seems to simply strengthen his appeal. This leaves his other rivals to find out for himself.
