David Wasserman from the Cook Political report presented a blue wave that destroyed the Republicans in Virginia. Yes, he says that the ten -fist pickup in races of the community community delegates can offer a hint of how it can go in the middle of the 2018 semester; Democrats received 13. It was penetration. Democrats appeared in numbers that have not been perceptible since 2008. Thanks to such an electorate, GOP was going to be creamy. However, even with these victories there are several reservations. First of all, Virginia is popular, it is a country worn by Clinton and is highly educated. College’s white education in combination with a huge election turnout, create the GOP killing fields. However, Wasserman also throws chilly water on a democratic exaltation, paying attention to the wall of white working -class voters, which Democrats must defeat to recover the house. He focuses in Howard, Iowa, where he is not a power to power, he is the only one who had a 20-point swing of voices between democrats and republicans, especially between Obama and Trump. So, while many Democrats often slander and mock these people as racists, the fact that the 98 % of the White County voted for a black man twice, probably suggests that the change was mainly caused by the economy – in sage they are here in stagnation, and people They work more than ever work – and want to shake Washington.
Even after Tuesday’s winnings, Demes do not have the luxury of writing these voters. They have a lot of turf working class to defend in 1918 and have no choice how to take part in Mi/PA/WI in ’20.
– Dave Wasserman (@redistrict) November 9, 2017
It is ironic that in 2008 Clinton won this country during clubs. At that time, she conducted a campaign on a diminutive town, a professional crusader, trying to paint Obama as an elite. As in most cases in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, you had democrats in those areas who were tired of being ignoring the city’s professional wing of the Democratic Party that took power. Until 2016, Clinton was an elite elite, Bernie Fever kidnapped the region, and Wasserman noticed that distrust reached a boiling point. Why does this county matter? Well, it may have the key to who will win the first Congress District Iowa next year. Rod Blum, a republican, maintains this, but the Democratic Committee of the Congress Campaign has it on its target list.
By Fivethirtyeight:
In a country more and more consisting of landslides – places that voted for at least 20 percentage points – Howard County, Iowa (population 9332), stands out as the only one of 3141 poviats of America, which voted by over 20 points The percentage for Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016. Democrats cannot reliably blame the huge 41-point Howard Fountain Swings in just four years of the letter at the last moment to Congress, provisions regarding the identifier of voters or ads sponsored by Russia on Facebook.
[…]
Unlike the “Trump Country” stereotype, Howard is not drowning in the production of work loss, high unemployment or opioid crisis. In fact, his unemployment rate was only 2.9 percent a month before the election. Main problem? Stagnous wages – and biting the feeling that people have been working harder and for longer hours, while other parts of the country collected much larger awards while recovering after a great recession.
“When Trump said:” What do you have to lose? “Many more people heard this than just African Americans,” said Pat Murray, a democrat who worked for 29 years as a press brake operator in Donaldson, and now sits on the supervisory board of Howard. “Our wages were stagnant and our insurance fell,” he told me, citing the deducting deductions of the health plan sponsored by the Union. “We work 50, 60 hours a week because there is nobody to employ.”
“[Obama] He saved us from the next great depression, but he never really returned to the working class, “said Murray, who calls himself” just like this, as they come “, but claims that Clinton’s campaign took a place like Howard County for granted in November elections. “The average Joe blow does not disconnect on the stock exchange. Democrats always say that we will fight for working people. We haven’t shown it at all in the last few elections. “
[…]
The campaign from Clinton’s autopsy often cites her inattention in Michigan and Wisconsin as a cause of her loss. But her lack of connection in places such as the Howard Flame probably had less in common with whom the United States visited – finally spent a lot of time in Iowa – and not only with her image and a message.
Clinton became seen as an establishment and dishonest in the year when a lot of voters wanted to change. But in a surprising show of unconsciousness, she spent most of the autumn casting between the rallies of immense cities, where there were often high dollar fundraisers. She spent valuable little time, doing her economic matter before people in medium -sized cities or diminutive towns such as Cresco. And although she donated Trump from $ 6.5 million to $ 2.2 million to Iowa air waves, her ads concerned Trump’s antics than how she would raise the salary of voters or how Trump could reduce them – effectively limiting this basis to utopian promises and inevitable slogans.
[…]
Another Democrats path to 270 votes in the election college may not go through Iowo. In the end Trump won a slightly larger margin in Hawkeye than in Texas. But democrats do not have the luxury simply to write voters like those lost in Howard.
If the Democrats want to regain the house in 2018, they will have to win congress districts, such as Iowa’s 1.. The first district was narrowly chosen by rugged, representative of GOP Rep. ROD BLUM in November last year. More importantly, Howard County County Trump Democrats have countless analogues in the states that will decide on the elections in 2020: not only in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but also in Minnesota and Maine.
[…]
Rebuild the Lost Trust and get support, Future democrats are facing twin challenges, first of all, convincing that Trump is on the right track to a negative impact on their maintenance, and secondly, recovering the coat of a workers’ class hero That everyone who was successful nominated for a democratic nominee since the Wateville ruled the stage at the Cresco Theater.
Wasserman noticed on Twitter how a democratic design project in the working class is not doing well. In fact, when Virginia Democrats wins, it may even strengthen their feelings in the party that it is not worth reaching voters who have voted for Obama twice – a bit strange since Obama set off to these poviats. And although he did not win them, he was able to keep margins in levels that they ensured he won twice. Clinton was more concentrated on Hollywood tape, disregarded white class voters and did not have an economic program. Look at what happened there.
Nevertheless, the GOP pension rash and the legislative stagnation of the Trump program can do more to destroy the home most of the Republican majority in 2018. Trump’s approval should enhance, taking into account the time frame. Democrats are still struggling with recruitment problems at rally in rural areas. One of their candidates in New York has already abandoned problems with raising funds. Certainly, Virginia presented good news for Democrats, but she has a lot to do until November 2018. If their contempt for white workers’ voters lasts, expect that it will be more tossing.
Howard County, Ia, a city full of striking idiots who have a life without a moral northern star. They are a city full of insolent adolescent children demanding spaghetti and then refusing to eat when he is on a plate in front of them. https://t.co/t6wmmqhpvd
– Frank Walsh (@Walshcommafrank) November 9, 2017
This approach on the left certainly sounds like a great strategy to recover Obama voters. https://t.co/3fr3n4lnvb
– Dave Wasserman (@redistrict) November 9, 2017
And … here is only the sampling with @Fivethirtyyeight Comments section: pic.twitter.com/irsyn9gbvn
– Dave Wasserman (@redistrict) November 9, 2017
You should see my inbox … more perceptible than you would expect.
– Dave Wasserman (@redistrict) November 9, 2017
