Incumbents seeking re-election typically have the upper hand, even in such red states. It’s no surprise, then, that Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio would have an advantage over his opponents. But, recently published survey from Emerson College showed that Brown’s advantage was decreasing.
Brown currently leads state Sen. Matt Dolan 39 to 38 percent, Secretary of State Frank LaRose 39 to 37 percent and businessman Bernie Moreno 39 to 37 percent. Moreno, in particular, saw an improvement in the polls while Brown’s support dropped in comparison to him.
November Emerson/Nexstar Media poll showed Brown leads with 42 percent to Moreno’s 32 percent.
The poll also showed Moreno improving his performance in the Republican primary. Statistically, he and LaRose are tied at 22 and 21 percent, respectively. Dolan has 15 percent support. However, forty-two percent are still undecided.
“Since last month, Moreno’s support has increased by 12 percentage points from 10% to 22%, LaRose’s support has increased by three points from 18% to 21%, and Dolan’s support has remained at 15%,” the poll text noted, highlighting the change .
The poll was conducted after former and potentially future President Donald Trump endorsed Moreno last December after he had already spoken favorably about the candidate for months.
Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball is quoted in the letter as referring to the endorsement:
“Moreno saw the biggest move in the November poll after endorsing former President Trump in December,” Kimball noted. “One-quarter (25%) of Trump general election voters support Moreno in the U.S. Senate primary. Twenty percent will support LaRose and 12% will support Dolan. Heading into the primary, forty-two percent are still undecided.”
“Moreno appears to be the preferred choice to challenge Brown among older voters, with just over a quarter (26%) of voters 50 and older supporting Moreno, compared to 19% supporting LaRose and 16% supporting Dolan,” Kimball said . “LaRose, on the other hand, is performing better among younger GOP voters, garnering 26% of support from GOP voters under 30.”
Trump also leads President Joe Biden by 11 points, with 47% approval to Biden’s 36%, according to the poll. Trump beat Biden in 2020 by 8 points, just like Hillary Clinton did in 2016. While Brown has outperformed before, as he did in 2018 for re-election, Trump’s presence on the ballot, assuming is a candidate, it could harm the Democrat.
The poll was conducted Jan. 23-25, surveyed 1,844 registered voters, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.
Just before the 2022 midterm elections, Emerson College Polling showed currently, Sen. J.D. Vance, the GOP candidate, has 53% support to then-Republican Tim Ryan’s 44% when undecided voters are taken into account. More than half, 56 percent, expected Vance to win. Vance ultimately defeated Ryan, winning 53.28% of the vote to Ryan’s 46.72%.
The survey was released around the same time quarterly collections data was released. Report from Spectrum News 1 highlighted numbers and statements from three campaigns, all of which ended in victory:
Republican state Sen. Matt Dolan leads with $4.8 million, businessman Bernie Moreno with just over $2 million, and Secretary of State Frank LaRose lags behind with about $700,000.
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“Frank LaRose has won over his opponents and is undoubtedly the man who can beat this race,” said Ben Kindel, a spokesman for the LaRose campaign. “He is the only proven conservative and the only one who actually won a statewide election. And in November, he will be the one who finally retires Sherrod Brown.
“Bernie’s recent rise in the polls, along with his continued strong fundraising performance, make it clear: he is the candidate to beat,” said Reagan McCarthy, a spokeswoman for Moreno’s campaign. “Our campaign brings together the support of hard-working Ohioans across the state who know Bernie is the candidate who can unite the party and defeat Sherrod Brown in November.”
“As Bernie Moreno and Frank LaRose continue to lag in fundraising, it is clear that Matt Dolan is currently the best-positioned candidate with the resources, message and conservative record to win the primary and defeat Sherrod Brown in November.” said Kathi Paroska, Dolan’s campaign manager.
Forecasts currently consider the race to be “The Throw.” When Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia announced last November that he was retiring, Senate races in Ohio and Montana also considered as “Toss-Up” is the one to watch in a year that could prove especially favorable for Republicans. The Montana Senate race has made headlines for a potentially confused primary, especially if Republican Matt Rosendale faces Democratic Sen. Jon Tester once again.
