Let’s face it, the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in the Buckeye State was a sure-fire spectacle from the start. Maybe more than “a little” from caricatured confrontations Down entertaining ads Down ugly shooting Down strange whining. The main day has finally arrived, and this prolonged intra-party war will soon end in disaster. Why are the stakes so high in this basic fight? Two main reasons: Firstly, it is a must-visit place for a party. The nominee will emerge battered and bruised, facing the challenge of a well-rested and well-financed “moderate” Democrat in general. More about him in a moment. Donald Trump carried the country by eight points so in 2016 he repeated the feat four years later. Ohio has turned red in recent years, and all signs point to the election cycle turning from red to scarlet. This combination should enough to keep the seat in Republican hands, but nothing can be taken for granted.
Secondly, this is the first major test in 2022 of Trump’s continued influence on Republican politics. He already had to”not support“ his anointed election to the Senate in Alabama due to impending defeat – and his feud with Gov. Brian Kemp in Georgia it can also end badlyfrom Trump’s perspective. Trump is in danger for Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania and J.D. Vance in Ohio. Or J.D something-or-other:
Trump: We endorsed Dr. Oz. We supported JP, right? JD Mandell. He’s doing great pic.twitter.com/wkP3KetanL
— Acyn (@Acyn) May 1, 2022
He combined the names of JD Vance, the candidate he actually supported, and Josh Mandel, one of Vance’s opponents. There are Mandela supporters displaying ads attacking Vance for opposing Trump in 2016, which actually happened apparently furious Trump’s world. Meanwhile, there is another candidate it is said to be growing at the very end of the race, and there he is at least overtly Trumpy ballot option:
“There was a big surge in Dolan’s popularity on Saturday and Sunday,” says Robert Cahaly, Trafalgar’s pollster. “Sunday’s snapshot looks nothing like Friday’s snapshot.” https://t.co/WNy5QlZuRNhttps://t.co/QgILNJYpsB pic.twitter.com/ndyoCB5ESq
— John McCormack (@McCormackJohn) May 2, 2022
According to Trafalgar, 9 percent of likely Ohio Republican primary voters are undecided. The vast majority of undecided voters support Mike DeWine in the gubernatorial primary.https://t.co/Q18jKgPgy3 pic.twitter.com/XYBJfKAN1A
— John McCormack (@McCormackJohn) May 2, 2022
If it’s all true Maybe Matt Dolan can be shocking. But Vance is the favorite. The primaries have been crowded for months, with no candidate clearly moving away from the pack. Trump stepped into the mud and chose his man, helping Vance, shoot from a slightly tentative third or fourth place candidate to a narrow favorite. A Vance victory would enable Trump to tout his status as kingmaker. Losing Vance would be a blow to the former president’s aura of dominance and invincibility on the right, others will likely follow suit. As we mentioned earlier, the Democrat in the race will be Congressman Tim Ryan, who is trying hard to escape his party’s toxic national brand:
Check out Tim Ryan’s latest ad where he stands *against* his own party: https://t.co/WetiNtvhQi
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) May 3, 2022
Problem? Ryan voted for the Biden/Harris agenda literally 100 percent according to FiveThirtyEight analysis. He talks like “moderate” and “independent.” He votes like Pelosi and did not oppose Biden – who is 19 points underwater in Ohioaccording to a recent survey – once. “My party sucks, vote for me to save their majority, this is definitely a corner.” he growls republican agent. Plus, it’s difficult to genuinely argue that you’re an individualist who opposes your own party when… you don’t actually do it. Ryan was even one of the unanimous House Democrats to vote in favor of “Build Back Better,” a $5 trillion inflation bomb that raises taxes on millions of middle-class households while providing generous tax breaks for blue-state millionaires. It almost sounds too bad to be true, but it’s an right assessment.
All of this means that whoever emerges on the GOP side in Buckeye country tonight will certainly have plenty of material to utilize against the presumptive Democratic nominee in the race. Ryan will be shrewd and will not run out of funds. He will play the role of a Midwestern blue-collar worker. But his voting record is what it is, the mess that the Democrats in Washington created is what it is, and the president’s disapproval rating is what it is. Advantage: J. Dolan Mandel.
