Next year’s Ohio Senate race has long been considered one of the most critical races to watch. An incumbent president is almost never straightforward to defeat, but 2024 appears to be a particularly favorable map for Republicans, especially when it comes to seats that Democrats are defending. Among them is Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, the only remaining Democrat in the state other than the justices. While the state may be getting redder, Brown is still an outperformer and could still be tough to beat. However, if there is a suitable candidate who can challenge him, Republicans could emerge victorious.
Last week, Causeway Solutions released the results of a slow May poll conducted for the Leadership for Ohio Fund that showed Secretary of State Frank LaRose with a clear lead in the primary election. This is despite LaRose not yet declaring it.
Townhall obtained further information regarding the master model, which again confirmed LaRose’s lead. “The model clearly shows LaRose ahead at this point in the calendar, and there is other data in the model that indicates LaRose is the top candidate not only in the primary but also in the general election,” campaign memo Read.
Last week, a survey was published that showed that it had not yet been declared @FrankLaRose in the lead in the Ohio State Senate primary. Townhall has since received more details, this time about the entry-level model, confirming the impressive support the LaRose enjoys. Stay up to date with my text! pic.twitter.com/ukdJqEfuEl
— Rebecca Downs (@RebeccaRoseGold) June 12, 2023
According to the Primary Model, 45.9 percent is still undecided. However, LaRose enjoys 35.3 percent support, a clear advantage over declaring state Sen. Matt Dolan in Januaryand businessman Bernie Moreno, who proposed in April. They have 9.7 percent respectively. and 4.7 percent support.
On average, just under 1.1 million Ohio voters participate in the primary elections. Pollsters “expect turnout in the 2024 primary to be within the average range.”
LaRose also appears to have greater potential support among undecided voters. While such voters are open to all three candidates, LaRose has the highest consideration score at 88 percent compared to Moreno’s 70 percent and Dolan’s 59 percent.
To be sure, last November’s midterm elections were disappointing. Democrats not only maintained their majority in the Senate, but increased it by one seat when retiring Republican Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania was replaced by Democrat, now Senator John Fetterman. But beyond a more favorable map, the GOP seems to really understand what’s at stake.
The campaign memo quotes the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, as talking about his party’s need to appeal to voters “beyond the Republican base.” As Daines mentioned, “that’s something every candidate has to look in the mirror and say, ‘Am I the candidate who can unite the Republican base first and also appeal to independent voters?’ Here’s the recipe.”
Daines also stressed the importance of recruiting independent candidates during an interview with Townhall last November.
While agreeing that Ohio is one of the races to watch, the memo noted that such a “provision” would be crucial in Ohio, where Sherrod Brown is doing better than other Democrats with moderate voters.
When it comes to the factors facing a GOP candidate, Brown has a 12-point advantage over his typical Republican opponent when it comes to those who are “patterned as swing voters and most likely to turn out in 2024.” His performance “currently far outperforms the average Democrat among Ohio’s most savvy voters.”
Even though the average Republican is plus 12 with medium to low turnout, and voters are leaning GOP and swinging, Brown is ahead by 2 points. The note also indicated that this group of voters constitutes 30 percent. the general electorate, and Brown leads with her. “If [Brown] continues to present himself as a moderate and enjoys the support of Swing and Lean Republican Party voters, he will be extremely difficult to defeat,” the memo warns.
However, there are certainly some hopeful lessons to be learned, especially LaRose’s strengths as a candidate. The campaign memo highlighted that LaRose has won statewide elections four times. He recently won re-election as Secretary of State by more than 20 points.
Republican Gov. Mike DeWine and now Sen. J.D. Vance — also a Republican — who replaced retiring Republican Sen. Rob Portman, also were on the ballot last November. While DeWine “expanded his coalition by winning 16 points among independents, 15 points among women, and 20 points among union households, leading to a landslide victory,” Vance underperformed DeWine. LaRose, despite losing the vote, outperformed Vance in every county.
This is even more significant where LaRose has outperformed Vance the most, in the northern and northeastern counties. The memo noted that it was here that “in previous elections Brown had his largest base of support.” Still later, the memo reiterated that “LaRose’s support is widespread, including immense numbers in the more traditionally Democratic areas of northern and northeastern Ohio, where Brown is strongest.”
Another reason for hope is that the poll note indicates that “parental involvement in schools” is an issue “that, more than any other, concerns the entire electorate.” This is bad news for Democrats. “The pandemic-related shutdowns and the social and emotional issues of the last few years are clearly on the minds of voters heading into the 2024 elections.” – the note adds.
The memo also highlighted concerns about Moreno because “a very small number” in the model comes from conservative primary voters, which could be positive for the primary but will ultimately be a “significant challenge” in the general election.
The campaign memo also contains a stark warning about Dolan because older men and women support him. Brown does well with women voters, and DeWine won so easily in part because they improved their standing. Brown won in 2018 because he overperformed with women — especially independents — as well as moderate and union households.
As for Dolan’s weakness in this regard, the memo pointed out that “the lack of support from women should be concerning, as this is a group that the Republican Party has struggled with over the last several cycles.”
A slight majority, 52 percent, of undecided voters are women.
With regard to possible support from former and potentially future President Donald Trump, which he has already spoken a lot about More in this series. At a Vance campaign event last September, LaRose touted that he was the only sitting secretary of state to earn Trump’s endorsement for 2022. Forty percent of model primary voters “would be somewhat concerned about Trump’s endorsement in the race,” – notes from the note.
The latest information on the matter appears to be that LaRose has released a “mid to late” summer schedule, According to local news site WLWT that can bring us closer to what’s happening in a few weeks. NBC News also reported on it last month that’s what he expects announce “soon”.
