The Ohio Senate race will continue to be one of the most significant races to watch in 2024 as Republicans look to regain control of the U.S. Senate in a particularly favorable map. Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, the only Democrat elected to statewide office other than Supreme Court justices, announced he is running for re-election. Two Republicans have since made the announcement, including state Sen. Matt Dolan and businessman Bernie Moreno. However, it is the candidate leading in the polls who has not yet been declared, Secretary of State Frank LaRose.
Washington Examiner obtained results of a survey conducted by the Louisiana-based Causeway Solutions for Leadership for Ohio Fund. The group supported LaRose in his work as secretary of state, which he used to defend the integrity of the election. LaRose also raised money for the Columbus Dispatch group reported.
With the primary elections still nine months away, many GOP voters say they are “undecided.” The next largest number of voters – 24 percent – say they support LaRose, 17 percent say “someone else” and 11 percent say Dolan.
Just 6 percent say they support Moreno despite the attention surrounding his campaign and former and potentially future President Donald Trump be interested his candidacy, in addition to the support of Ohio Republican Senator J.D. Vance. It’s worth noting that Vance’s endorsement came as the poll was being conducted.
The poll was conducted May 19-27, surveyed 1,639 registered voters, and had a margin of error of 2.5%. Respondents included 526 Republicans, 535 Democrats and 578 independents.
The poll memo acknowledged that Trump’s possible support may be an “unknown factor.” Trump endorsed Vance last April, which led to his surge in the polls and he eventually became the nominee. “The former president continues to wield significant influence within the Republican Party, with approximately half of Ohio GOP voters saying the endorsement would have at least some influence on their votes,” the memo continues. However, a quarter of such voters say this support “would have negative consequences.”
Moreover, the memo warns that “a campaign strategy based solely on gaining Trump’s endorsement will not be enough” and that “the endorsed candidate, if he emerges, will still need to build a coalition of voters, including those with differing views on the issue.” Donald Trump to win the primary.”
As for Trump’s support, LaRose, at an event supporting Vance last September, touted that he was the only sitting secretary of state to have Trump’s endorsement. He won re-election by over 20 points.
This support for LaRose does not appear to be a coincidence. The campaign memo also noted that “polling shows… LaRose continues to maintain a solid lead from previous polls and maintains a clear path to securing the nomination.”
The campaign memo said: “LaRose benefits from her history of running and winning statewide four times (twice in the GOP primary and twice in the general election). Voters know and like him, as evidenced by his ability to build coalitions of supporters across the state.”
The memo also cited comments from the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chairman Steve Daines that Republicans need to appeal to voters “outside the Republican base.” Shortly after being elected to the position, Daines spoke to Townhall about the need to “come together as a party” and how Republicans lost independents, leading to a midterm election that was more disappointing for Republicans than expected.
As the memo continued to note that “skill [to appeal to voters] will be necessary in a potential matchup with Brown, who already has an advantage over independent voters.”
While Ohio could indeed represent one of the best opportunities for Republicans to take power, there are still challenges in defeating an incumbent president.
The survey note also seems to make this point clear:
… Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown is seeking re-election, and his history of electoral success and outperforming other Democrats in Ohio make him a formidable candidate in the general election.
While Ohio has become increasingly Republican-leaning over the past few cycles, it remains a state where voters are willing to “split the seats” and support candidates from both parties. Brown was a beneficiary of this change in 2018, winning his U.S. Senate race as the Republican Party captured all statewide executive offices.
The Republican candidate must be able to strengthen the GOP base and appeal to moderate Independent and Swing voters if there is to be any chance of unseating Brown next November.
Last month, Tom Zawistowski, president of the affiliated Tea Party My People Conventionhe argued that the key to defeating Brown was identifying the name he believed LaRose had.
In addition to LaRose’s qualities as a winning candidate, Brown could hurt his campaign by wanting to campaign with President Joe Biden, who is unpopular in Ohio.
A February POLITICO report noted that “The vast 2024 Senate map comes down to these 3 Democrats”, referring to Ohio, West Virginia and Montana.
Brown is mentioned as being more than okay with being associated with Biden:
Even in Ohio, Brown said he “assumes” he will campaign with Biden, even if the president is unlikely to view his state as a must-win state.
“I run my own race and my own brand. That’s why I’m not going to run away from Biden,” Brown said. “He also accomplished more than any president in recent history.”
That poll shows Biden has 39% approval, while 42% say they “strongly disagree.” He also lags behind the typical Republican candidate at 45-33%. Trump won Ohio in 2016 and 2020, both by about 8 points.
Latest Civiqs poll it also shows Biden with 54% disapproval and 38% approval.
Brown, however, holds a slim lead of 39-37 percent and leads independents 32-38 percent.
The latest information on the matter appears to be that LaRose has released a “mid to overdue” summer schedule, According to local news site WLWT that can bring us closer to what’s happening in a few weeks. NBC News also reported on it last month that’s what he expects announce “soon”.
