With entries from North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Vice President Mike Pence, the 2024 GOP field is suddenly filled and formed. While there are rumors about other candidates, it appears the Republican Party is ready to avoid a repeat of 2016, which had 17 candidates.
In 2016, Donald Trump defeated Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and Rick Santorum. Additionally, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, Rick Perry and Scott Walker ran but were eliminated before the Iowa caucuses. Scott Walker is the most notable because he was a guy who was talked about a lot. He got in on July 13, 2015 and dropped out on September 21, 2015. Bush and Walker were polling through July 2015. In fact, Scott Walker’s high point in the polls was April 1, 2015. By the time he actually announced, polling averages showed that his popularity has already dropped eight points from its peak in April.
This year, Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Larry Elder, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy and Tim Scott will challenge Trump. The race is undoubtedly Trump’s to win or lose. Nationwide, polls show about 50% favoring the GOP. To win the nomination, all candidates must pass Trump. What will be captivating to watch is how many of the remaining nine candidates decide to race for DeSantis over Trump.
In 2016, then-Gov. of Ohio. John Kasich, a liberal Republican, stayed in the Republican primary, attacking Ted Cruz, whose majority party had begun to consolidate against Donald Trump. All but three candidates withdrew. Kasich, instead of attacking Trump, put his efforts into stopping Cruz. Cruz withdrew on May 3, 2016, and Kasich withdrew a day later, ensuring Trump’s victory.
A similar effort against DeSantis can be expected in 2024, and several of his rivals are already looking at him, not Trump, as the man to beat. All of this helps Trump. What’s different now from 2016 is the growing view among many in the Republican Party that Trump is the weakest candidate possible to run against President Joe Biden. Both Christie and Pence seem to understand that Trump must be dealt with before DeSantis so as not to repeat Kasich’s 2016 play.
The other day, in his post, Pence answered a question that I said he would have to answer and that no other candidate would – why you and not your boss? Pence is running to replace former vice president Donald Trump. He must answer the question of why voters should choose him and not the man who chose him as vice president. His response on stage in Iowa is that on January 6, 2021, Trump asked Pence to choose Trump over the Constitution, and Pence chose the Constitution. Now he’s running to defend the Constitution against Trump.
Christie also sharply criticized reporters earlier this week for saying that Christie seemed more interested in running against Trump than winning the GOP nomination. Christie noted that to get the nomination, you have to go through Trump. Both men seem ready to kamikaze in their anti-Trump campaigns, which may lend a hand them, but it could undoubtedly lend a hand others.
As for former President Trump himself, he seems to have opted for the sheltered, conservative play. He will not appear on stage with other candidates during the Republican primary in August. He no doubt hopes that the candidates will tear DeSantis to pieces on stage. He didn’t take the country by storm. He mostly posted in all-caps on his own social media platform, hoping that others would take screenshots and tweets that no one would otherwise see. Like Smaug on his gold, Trump prefers to simply maintain his lead in the polls while the other nine candidates fight each other. It’s a sharp move.
However, the ongoing indictments are a problem. They can win over the faithful and enhance their support. But the charges will cost him money and time and could exhaust him, not to mention take him to jail. The man at the top, with nine ambitious men and women ready to take his place, faces risks.
