The speculation about will or not is over. National Republicans he went all out to convince popular Republican New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu to run for Senate next year against incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan. During her one term, Hassan was something of a nobody in the Senate. She is Chuck Schumer’s partisan stamp and in many she has not stood out, or really everyonemeaningful ways. Republicans believe that if they face a well-known, well-financed and well-liked GOP challenger this cycle — especially if the political environment continues to favor the opposition party nationally — Hassan’s job will be up for grabs. And the candidate most likely to break it was Sununu. He has performed well against her in hypothetical matchups, and New Hampshire voters know and trust him. His approval rating as governor stands on (+14)despite recent erosion.
It’s basic to see why Mitch McConnell and co it was scorching Sununu v Hassan race outlook:
Hassan and Sununu were also on the ballot in 2016, and check out the side-by-side photo. Hassan won by 743 votes (!) and Sununu won by 16,000 votes against the powerful Democratic candidate. pic.twitter.com/RYqNm7xHBu
— Alex Seitz-Wald (@aseitzwald) November 9, 2021
AND this recent survey hypothetical matchup – again, despite some decline in the governor’s popularity – had Republicans salivating:
A novel Granite State poll shows a tight, hypothetical 2022 U.S. Senate matchup between Republican Gov. Chris Sununu and Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan — with results released just days after the governor said a decision on a possible challenge to the office was imminent. A poll of 1,323 registered voters in New Hampshire conducted October 20–22 by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center found that Sununu leads Hassan, 46% to 41%, with 9 percent choosing “someone else” and 4 percent undecided.
But Governor Sununu, despite some clear criticism Hassana has repeatedly stated that he is definitely reluctant to go to Washington. There were rumors that he and his family really didn’t want to go the Senate route, despite pressure from the court-wide press from the national party trying to deal with the uncertain Senate math for 2022. Indeed, earlier today, Gov. Sununu announced his intention run for re-election to a fourth term as governor (governors serve two-year terms in New Hampshire) and avoid the Senate race:
Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) says “the more I heard” about being a senator after talking to “many U.S. senators,” the less he wanted to run. pic.twitter.com/AhtpMRi8Jz
— Story (@therecount) November 9, 2021
This is undoubtedly a blow to the GOP and its hopes of regaining a majority in the upper house next year. Right now the Senate is split 50/50, a the map is demanding. Republicans will play defense in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and elsewhere. Bad or extreme candidates could put any of the GOP-held seats at risk, and possibly others as well (think potentially Ohio or even Missouri). In other words, even a powerful, red-tinged national climate could result in Democrats expanding their majority in the Senate, just as Republicans managed to achieve in 2018, despite a sizable blue wave in the House. Republicans have the best chance of making gains in New Hampshire (though Sununu’s opposition makes that feat less likely), Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. All remaining Democratic seats appear fairly secure, with the possible exception of Colorado. At this early stage, neither situation appears to be a rematch, even if there is a credible path to wresting the majority from Schumer. New Hampshire still looks big. Democrats are there expressing obvious relief on Sununu’s decision:
Email from NH Democratic strategist: “Whew.”
— Reid Wilson (@PoliticsReid) November 9, 2021
They were afraid of him. But while Sununu’s pass acceptance makes the burden heavier in the Granite State contest, it’s still the order of the day. It was also my first thought after Sununu refused to run for Hassan’s seat. Revenge?
#NHSEN: All eyes are now on former Senator Kelly Ayotte, who may want a rematch with Senator Hassan due to Sununu’s decision.
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) November 9, 2021
Ayotte ran a powerful campaign in the Republican wave year of 2010, winning the open seat by 23 points. Six years later she he lost by a majority of 1,000 votes – she overtook Donald Trump – in the state she and Trump fell into Just brief (by 0.1 and 0.3 percent, respectively). Ayotte was certainly on the brief list of contingency plan options for the GOP in this race, but that’s what it looks like she left too. It is also possible that someone like Ayotte from 2010 emerges, runs a credible campaign in a favorable environment and wins. Eliminating an official from the opposing party is more hard than keeping an open seat previously controlled by your own party, but Hassan is no juggernaut, and 2022 may seem closer to 2010 than 2016. In a place like New Hampshire this analysis is true: :
To win in non-red territory, Republicans need *plus* MAGA support, and they need candidates — like Youngkin and others — who can deliver. It’s not either/or. This and. https://t.co/emvc2CExZy
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 9, 2021
