The pendulum of this theory swings back and forth. In the mid-2010s, it was thought that liberals fleeing their hellish blue states would not immediately impact the political systems of states with a solid republican structure. To some extent this was true. Residents of New York and New Jersey, tired of burdensome taxes, chose redder, less tax-burdened and more economically energetic states. Then 2020, with the Covid pandemic, was a boon for those who could work remotely, mainly professionals living in cities. These people abandoned their deep blue strongholds, which were also burdened by COVID protocols, and could have pushed Republicans out of some key races this year (via Policy):
There is now evidence that demographic shifts triggered by divergent Republican and Democratic responses to the pandemic are likely to cost Republicans several key midterm seats in 2022. And the effects, fueled by cross-country migration and even Covid death tolls, could last into 2024 and later.
U.S. Postal Service and Census Bureau data show how the pandemic forced urban professionals who could work remotely — most of them Democrats — in coastal, progressive cities to seek more space or recreational facilities in the country’s suburbs and Sun Belt. This moved Liberals from constituencies where Democrats reliably won by huge margins to many purple regions that had the potential to flip with only minor changes to the map.
And because partisan gerrymanders carved up up-to-date districts before the extent of pandemic mobility data was known, they could not neutralize population shifts. And the pollsters were none the wiser.
Some of the tightest Senate races took place in Nevada and Arizona, producing some of the largest population increases, according to Census Bureau data.
[…]
Elsewhere in the Southwest, in Colorado’s 8th District, Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer was projected to win the House race by 8 points and in 9 of 10 simulations conducted by FiveThirtyEight. Instead, Democrat Yadira Caraveo carried the election with a majority of fewer than 2,000 votes.
This heavily populated district includes parts of Adams and Weld counties in the Denver suburbs, which have collectively grown by almost 35,000 residents since 2018. Using the 2018 and 2022 Colorado governor’s races as indicators, Adams and Weld moved 8 and 6 points toward Democrats.
Far-right Republican Lauren Boebert was almost the most high-profile casualty of the Colorado Republican Party. While voters may also have grown weary of her inflammatory and divisive rhetoric, the state’s 3rd District — a expansive region on the western slope of the Rocky Mountains that includes ski resorts such as Aspen and Telluride — also contains many counties that have expanded during the pandemic. FiveThirtyEight’s models predicted a 14-point lead and victory in 97 of 100 simulations, but Boebert defeated Democrat Adam Frisch by just 600 votes.
[…]
A working paper by Yale researchers recently published by the National Bureau of Economic Research shows that significantly more Republicans than Democrats are likely dying from Covid-19.
According to the study, which used data from Florida and Ohio counties, registered Republicans and Democrats died from Covid in equal numbers in 2020, but as vaccines became widely available in the summer of 2021, excess deaths among Republicans almost doubled compared with the Democrats. In the winter of 2021, the disparities widened even further.
Did Politico go there by suggesting that the Covid-19 vaccine saved the Democrats’ supposed electoral advantage? The spooky tone is the buried diode here. Intelligent liberals, who know their stuffthey took the vaccine and won, while national republicans didn’t and are dying out. Never mind that plenty of hearty people who took the vaccine are now “suddenly dying.” Or data sets showing that the majority of Covid deaths are now from people who have been vaccinated. That would be uncomfortable, right? It also had nothing to do with the Republican Party losing control of dozens of races and painstakingly allocating resources to some of the most critical ones this cycle.
You can debate among yourselves whether the Trump brand will hurt the GOP. Honestly, it’s going to be another mess, but it’s necessary if we want to win in 2024. I’ll think about it later, but for now the left is enjoying a victory lap while Raphael Warnock won the runoff in Georgia.
