Republicans are on track to have a particularly favorable map for 2024, not only in terms of holding on to the seats they defend, but also those they have a real chance of winning. Not only is it unlikely that Democrats will have much chance of winning seats in Florida, Missouri or Texas, but they may also have trouble in Montana, West Virginia and Ohio.
Of the three, it’s the only one that makes sense. Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio have announced they are running for re-election, which means Democrats at least have the advantage of incumbency.
However, in West Virginia, Sen. Joe Manchin has not yet announced that he will run again. In fact, there is even talk that he may run for president. Whatever he decides, we may not find out for a while. As last week’s announcement shows, he is also in the biggest trouble Morning Consult survey showing the most and least popular senators and governors in the country.
Tester is actually the ninth most popular senator in the country, with 58% approval and 33% disapproval. He is the only vulnerable incumbent re-election candidate on this top 10 list.
NEW: America’s most popular senators:
Treasury (D-HI): 65%
Grinders (I-VT): 64%
Barrasso (R-WY): 63%
Thune (R-SD): 63%
Welch (D-VT): 62%
Lummis (R-WY): 61%
Rounds (R-SD): 61%
Hirono (D-HI): 60%
Tester (D-MT): 58%
King (I-ME): 57%
*January March 1, 31/2023https://t.co/q8klQ5ilPc pic.twitter.com/leK3YGS2wV— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) April 20, 2023
Even more telling is that Tester also does well when it comes to voters who disapprove of President Joe Biden. The poll summary noted that “Tester boasts a notable difference from other vulnerable Democratic incumbents: A significant share of people who disapprove of Biden’s job performance approve of him.”
As for the percentage of voters who disapprove of Biden, 42 percent approve of Tester. Although 49 percent still disapprove of him, Tester nonetheless enjoys the highest approval ratings among the seven Democratic senators up for re-election in 2024.
Montana’s Jon Tester boasts a noticeable difference from other vulnerable Democratic incumbents: A significant portion of people who disapprove of Biden’s job performance approve of him. https://t.co/q8klQ5ilPc pic.twitter.com/Qg4Z9KRyxO
— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) April 19, 2023
And once again, Tester he did only win re-election in 2018 by 3.5 points over incumbent Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT), who could challenge him again. And this year was considered a blue wave. Sabato’s Crystal Ball wonders race in 2024 as a “Toss of the Fate,” and Inside Elections considers it a “Democratic battleground” race.
As for Brown, he is neither among the 10 most popular nor the 10 most unpopular senators. Among voters who disapprove of Biden, he has only 27 percent approval and 51 percent disapproval. However, among the seven senators included in the vote, he still ranks third in terms of support. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin has the lowest approval rating in this category, at 17 percent, with a whopping 70 percent disapproval.
Brown won re-election in 2018 by almost 7 points, but Ohio is getting redder. Moreover, former and potentially future President Donald Trump is popular there and could very well be on the ballot in both the general and primary elections.
Republican Party candidates have already entered the race to unseat Brown, including state Sen. Matt Dolan and businessman Bernie Moreno. Race is currently under consideration “Throw”.
Even though everyone is thinking about Manchin, we still don’t know if he will even run for re-election.
The polling record attributes this in part to his support for the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act he admitted in fact, it will do nothing to aid reduce inflation in the brief term. He also agreed to provide his key support in exchange for authorizing reforms, and then asked Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to remove it from the continuing resolution after many of his fellow Democrats made it clear that they were not involved in this. negotiations and would not provide his support.
While Manchin recently shared his concerns about the bill signed into law by Biden last August, it may be too little too slow.
He is currently the second most unpopular senator with 38 percent support. More than half (55%) disapprove of his performance at work. Among voters who disapprove of Biden, Manchin has 34% approval, putting him second behind Tester. However, he still has a 59% disapproval rating.
The poll also details how, if he runs for re-election, he would likely face Gov. Jim Justice, a term-limited Republican. The third most popular governor is Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH), with each having 66 percent approval. Sununu’s disapproval rate of 29 percent is slightly better than Justice’s disapproval rate of 31 percent.
“In West Virginia, the popularity of Manchin — once one of America’s most popular senators — has declined, and national Republicans are hoping to hire a term-limited judge to challenge him. This contest would pit one of the most unpopular officials in the country against one of the most popular, according to the latest quarterly surveys,” the poll summary reads.
The article even includes a separate section comparing Manchin to the judge, who is expected to announce his Senate campaign in the coming days.
Percentage of registered voters in West Virginia who approve or disapprove of the performance of Senator Joe Manchin and Governor Jim Justice:
Manchina
Approve: 38%
Disagree: 55%Justice
Approve: 66%
I disagree: 31%https://t.co/q8klQ5ilPc pic.twitter.com/7DelxtyM5v— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) April 19, 2023
Of particular note is the fact that Manchin has even lower approval ratings among Democrats – members of his own party – than Justice, although it is worth noting that Justice was previously a Democrat. Fifty-two percent of Democrats approve of Justice, while 49 percent approve of Manchin.
As with Tester, Manchin wins since 2018 was narrow, 3.3 points over Republican Patrick Morrisey, who is now attorney general and running for governor.
But Manchin is there NO most unpopular senator. That distinction belongs to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). His approval rating is just 28 percent and his disapproval is 64 percent.
NEW: America’s most unpopular senators:
1. McConnell (R-KY): 64%
2. Manchin (D-WV): 55%
3. Collins (R-ME): 53%
4. Johnson (R-WI): 52%
5. Graham (R-SC): 47%
*RV disapproval in every state, January 1-March. 31/2023https://t.co/q8klQ5iTEK pic.twitter.com/vdH5z5J2iV— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) April 19, 2023
The polls were conducted Jan. 1-March 21 among registered voters in each state. The margin of error ranged from plus or minus 1 percentage point to plus or minus 6 percentage points.
