by Nick Pope
President Joe Biden’s signature legislation directs billions of dollars to swing states, but experts aren’t convinced the money will make much of a difference in the November election.
Bipartisan infrastructure Act of 2021, the so-called CHIPS Act and Act on reducing inflation (IRAs) have collectively contributed billions of dollars to battleground states over Biden’s first term. The Biden campaign is action swing state ads promoting funds and projects created under Biden’s legislative agenda, but state and national experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation the benefits are unlikely to be a deciding factor in states like Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
“I doubt that most voters are aware of these projects, mainly because at this point they are little more than ribbon cuttings and plans. The administration has not spent even a fraction of the appropriated funds,” Mike McKenna, a Republican political consultant with extensive experience in the energy sector, told DCNF. “More importantly, these projects will affect a fairly small part of the population – potential employees and investors, that’s all. Inflation – in the energy, food, housing and consumer goods sectors – affects approximately everyone.”
ABC’s Jon Karl says Trump leads in swing states because voters ‘weren’t paying attention’https://t.co/5mairtxI2a
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) November 5, 2023
The three bills collectively allocated $15.4 billion in public funds for green energy, infrastructure and semiconductor chip manufacturing in Arizona, According to to Invest.gov, a government website that tracks the administration’s plans. The administration also says its legislative agenda has attracted $121 billion in private sector investment into the state.
In Pennsylvania, Biden’s landmark bills allocated $16.7 billion in public funds to green energy, infrastructure and semiconductor initiatives, according to Invest.gov. In Michigan, these three bills pumped $12.5 billion into the state for the same initiatives.
In both rust belt states, the Biden administration is also touting private sector investments totaling $32 billion in green energy, manufacturing, semiconductor manufacturing and more, according to Invest.gov.
Trump Clobbers Biden Gains Lead in Key Swing States with Black, Latino Voters: SURVEYhttps://t.co/m95t5Eyfy0
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) May 13, 2024
Pennsylvania
Former President Donald Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, but Biden changed his mind in the 2020 cycle. The state is crucial to which candidate hopes to win in 2024, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average indicates Trump overtook Biden by 2%.
Pennsylvanians will also decide whether to re-elect an incumbent Democratic senator. Bob Casey in November in another key race. Real clear policy questionnaire data suggests Casey currently has a 4.8% lead over Republican candidate Dave McCormick.
January of the Biden administration decision a hold on approvals for modern liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals could be a key factor in both races. Pennsylvania produced more natural gas in 2022 than every state except Texas, with 20 percent of U.S. natural gas produced this year coming from the Keystone State, According to to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
“I think President Biden’s problem in Pennsylvania is that these bills really haven’t created enough jobs — especially in the near term — to offset the losses from natural gas supply cuts,” Jon McHenry, a GOP poll analyst who works for North Star Opinion Research, DCNF said. “Even if voters know about potential future gains, what they really know is that there will likely be job losses as a direct result of what could be called a ‘gas war.’ And of course, the president is in a bind because any backtracking on his green energy rhetoric will erode his base.”
McHenry and other experts earlier he said DCNF that the LNG supply disruption could cost Democrats the Senate because of Pennsylvania’s unique demographics, and the policy could also drag Biden down given that the industry is hiring tens of thousands Pennsylvania residents. As of March, the economy was the top issue for more than 35 percent of Pennsylvania voters, followed by crime and immigration, According to in a survey conducted by Emerson College Polling and The Hill.
Michigan
Michigan, like Pennsylvania, went for Trump in 2016 before Biden won it in 2020. RealClearPolitics polling data indicates that Trump currently has a slight lead of 0.8% in the head-to-head matchup.
The state, known as the beating heart of the U.S. auto industry, also has a unique connection to the administration’s climate agenda, which includes contains massive growth in the production and adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in the coming decade. Both the IRA and the Infrastructure Act include subsidies designed specifically to ease the transition to electric vehicles, as well as boost American manufacturing and the adoption of other green technologies.
The electric vehicle program played a role in the United Auto Workers initiative strike in 2023, as the union feared the future envisioned by Biden administration officials would likely leave many of its members unemployed. The union ended the strike after ensuring there would be no switch to electric vehicles disadvantage his employees.
Promoting electric vehicle and green energy investments in a state with many blue-collar voters with populist leanings could be counterproductive, but Biden and his campaign have few other options, according to Jason Cabela Roe, a Michigan-based GOP consultant. .
“These bills and bills are at the center of any achievements he can point to in his first term, so he must build on them, whether they are good or bad,” Roe told the DCNF.
Roe added that he thinks immigration will also become a key issue influencing how the state votes in November.
“I just polled two months ago in Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, which in many ways is probably a decent microcosm of the state. “Immigration was the number one issue,” Roe told DCNF. “You know, a lot of it is just a cultural reaction to what’s happening at the border. Many of them follow what is happening in major urban areas. “Not so much Michigan cities, but places that are in our atmosphere, like Chicago, where you see a reaction to the influx of illegal immigrants.”
Adolph Mongo, a lifelong Michigan resident and expert on Democratic politics in the state, was even more critical of the Biden campaign’s message in its national platform, which he called “very weak” in delicate of the more pressing challenges facing ordinary people.
“It’s a very frail message. The administration has done some good things, but if I’m the average person in these states where the real political junkies are, they’re going to look at this and say, ‘You know what, I’m not going to vote for Donald Trump for anything in the world,'” Mongi told DCNF. “But when you live in a community, let’s say Detroit, and you don’t have a real grocery store, or you walk into a grocery store and food prices double, the schools are terrible, people are looking for jobs, et cetera, et cetera. This is the problem. Saying the economy is great and all these other things – the average person doesn’t care. It’s like, “How can I improve my life and my family’s life?”
Mongi added that he doesn’t believe Biden is an true messenger and that Democrats could raise voter enthusiasm if former President Barack Obama campaigned more forcefully for Biden.
Arizona
Trump also carried Arizona in the 2016 race before losing the state in 2020. The latest polls from RealClearPolitics indicates that Trump currently leads by 5.2%.
Arizona is unique among swing states in that it is both home to the crown jewels of the CHIPS Act and a state directly bordering Mexico, potentially making immigration a more pressing issue than anywhere else. On other issues, immigration ‘dominates’ Arizona electorate concerns According to to the Arizona Future Center.
Intel AND TSMCtwo major technology companies, have chosen to establish multi-billion dollar semiconductor facilities in the state through the CHIPS Act.
But according to Barrett Marson, a Republican strategist from Arizona, fear about the state of the economy and the crisis at the border will motivate voters more than modern facilities.
“I’m not sure there’s actually a state that has benefited more from the CHIPS Act than Arizona. “When it comes to TSMC and Intel, Arizona has really benefited greatly from some of President Biden’s economic initiatives,” Marson told DCNF. “When we talk about the economy, voters don’t pay attention to that. They pay attention to gas prices, which here are approaching $4.50 a gallon, they pay attention to interest rates, both when buying cars and houses… These are factors that affect you every day.”
“Immigration has long been the number one or number two issue in Arizona,” Marson continued. “And currently, border policy cannot be described in any other way than as a simple failure. I think that’s what’s driving President Trump’s popularity to some extent. I think it’s about both economic and border issues. Honestly, the only thing that will save Joe Biden in Arizona is abortion.”
The Biden campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
– – –
Nick Pope is a reporter for the Daily Caller News Foundation.
