Republicans upended the favorable Senate map in 2022, losing one net seat and leaving many winnable contests just out of reach. Perhaps it was not a reasonable expectation that the party would win Arizona AND Georgia, AND Nevada, AND Pennsylvania – Although covering these four races shouldn’t be out of the question given the national climate. All they had to do was win half of them and they would have the majority. They lost them all and were no longer competitive in New Hampshire and Washington, a year of waves that could have been in grave jeopardy. Despite these grave shortcomings, the causes of which we have previously analyzed, the 2024 Senate map is even more tilted toward Republicans. They should be able to retake the Senate next year with a few seats open. But will they do it?
Joe Manchin could be in grave trouble in West Virginia, especially if the GOP primary candidate is his challenger. Hypothetically, it would be 50th, although Manchin survived and should not be written off. Elsewhere, Republicans have great opportunities ahead of them in the purple-red states of Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Nevada and Wisconsin could also be in the mix. Some Republicans, however, fear that a repeat of 2022, in which the party fields unelectable or less electable candidates, could turn into another defeat — or at least minimize gains. Josh Kraushaar w Axles describes the déjà vu– stylish concerns among some strategists and leaders:
NEW Sunday sneak @aksios: “Senate Republicans received a historically favorable 2024 map, but again face the risk of problematic candidates emerging in must-win races.” https://t.co/iU3xciJdNb
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) March 12, 2023
in Pennsylvania Far-right 2022 gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano is considering a Senate run against Sen. Bob Casey (R-PA). Daines encouraged former hedge fund executive David McCormick to run at last month’s NRSC retreat, and later publicly blasted Mastriano as unelectable: “We need someone who can win the primary and the general election. His last race showed he couldn’t win the general.” Daines told HuffPost. In Arizona, Kari Lake is seriously considering a Senate campaign against Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and Democrat Ruben Gallego after losing the 2022 governor’s race. Lake was the keynote speaker at the CPAC dinner, where she was enthusiastically welcomed (and won the vice presidential poll) . She continues to deny that she lost the election and that Trump lost in 2020.
Lake seems fully committed to her Stacy Abrams impersonation segment, pretending to be the rightful governor of a state she lost (to an absolutely terrible Democratic candidate, by the way), despite being the top vote-getter in Arizona in 2022 , was a Republican and among the same electorate that gave the GOP all three competitive House seats. Worse yet, in Pennsylvania Doug Mastriano was annihilated in last year’s gubernatorial election, but at least one Democratic poll shows him as the leading candidate for the Senate nomination:
This morning we received a modern poll showing Mastriano as the clear frontrunner in both the two-way primary with David McCormick and the three-way primary with Kathy Barnette. Remember:
– This is from a Democratic pollster (who may want Mastriano to run)
– There is plenty of time to change the race pic.twitter.com/X36ZfXnCk0—Logan Phillips (@LoganR2WH) March 13, 2023
It’s difficult to overstate the level of joy this poll result inspired among Democratic political professionals, who would welcome another statewide victory in Pennsylvania, where Republicans were decimated last year. Will GOP voters really fall in line behind a string of proven losers given the results of the last runoff? Democrats are rooting difficult for this outcome. Across the country, Democrats have made clear which Republicans they hope to face in the general election, and how every single race in which they interfered (then faced their preferred opponent), they won. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Perhaps GOP voters should pay attention to Democratic-favored Republican candidates and then refuse to give the opposition exactly what it wants.
