While former President Donald Trump and his staunch supporters continue to jump the shark with baseless and senseless attacks on the most popular elected Republican in decades, the elephant continues to destroy the room by stomping, honking, and generally being disruptive to a degree that is impossible to ignore .
We can talk about records. We can talk about positions on specific issues. We can talk about who makes better hiring decisions. We can talk about a whole host of things that are significant to electing the next president of the United States, but they are all moot if one thing is missing – the elephant of all elephants – popular vote electability.
You can say whatever you want about Trump and you’ll probably be right. Was he robbed in 2020? Yes. Does he deserve a second term to make up for it? Seems fair. Are Trump’s policy positions, especially on trade, immigration and foreign policy, the best course for America? Absolutely. Will he be able to do his job effectively? There is no doubt that if he learns from his mistakes, especially when making hiring decisions. Was his record mostly good? Until March 2020, two thumbs up. If he gets arrested this week for this false nonsense, won’t it be nothing more than a political witch hunt? Of course.
As I have written and said many times, if I could wave a magic wand to give Trump a second term, I would do it in a heartbeat. Even with his tendency to incite the left to savage levels, his policies would create a much better America than the policies of almost any Republican, and certainly any Democrat. Unfortunately, since there is no such thing as a magic wand I can exploit to get Trump into office, he and his supporters have to do it the old-fashioned way by actually winning the Electoral College in the national general election.
This is where it gets tricky, because despite the smug assurances of the Q’Anon remnants who make up the nasty #AlwaysTrump contingent on Twitter, Trump isn’t going to “shock the world” like he did in 2016. How should I know this, especially when I was the one who wrote in 2016 that victory was possible? Yes, it’s a very different political landscape, but it’s also one in which Trump and his antics have managed to permanently alienate at least half of the country’s eligible voters. And not just voters in California and New York, but also in many key swing states that will be absolutely necessary for Trump to win the Electoral College.
But don’t take my word for it. Let’s dive in, shall we? Use this interactive presidential election map and do your own math if you want. It takes 270 electoral votes to win, and Trump or any other Republican starts here with a 125 to 209 advantage, with the supposed states “in play” being Maine (3), Nebraska (1), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (19) , Ohio (17), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), Arizona (11), Texas (40), Florida (30), Georgia (16) and Karolina North (16).
Of these “active” states, Trump, or indeed any GOP candidate, could reasonably expect to overtake Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa. That’s 109 electoral votes added to the original 125, for a total of 234. Even if you’re not a math whiz, you know that’s not enough. Where will those 36 remaining electoral votes come from?
On the other hand, it’s pretty secure to say that Democrats will add Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), the rest of Maine (3) and Nebraska (1) and, yes, Michigan (15) and Pennsylvania (19) to the total 261. I know Trump supporters will scream that Michigan and Pennsylvania are on the line, but I can assure you that the changes in the elections that have occurred over the last few years are due to demographic changes as well as antics Trump made these states a solid electoral stronghold for Democrats. If you don’t believe me, I simply refer you to Exhibit A: Re-elected Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Exhibit B: Newly Elected Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman. I won’t even quote the polls because his supporters would reject it anyway, but if you think Trump can win these states back, to paraphrase George Strait, I have an oceanfront property for sale in Arizona.
Speaking of… With only nine more electoral votes needed, Republicans have no room for error in the remaining states – Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin. Nevada seems to have become a real bust lately, but if I’m right in my predictions for now, it won’t matter which way it goes this time. To regain the presidency, Trump or DeSantis must win Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgia. Winning two out of three may be an impressive feat, but it won’t result in victory. Whoever the GOP candidate is, they have to win EVERYONE. Excluding Nevada, it would be a razor-thin 271-267 victory. Razor slender, but sufficient.
To be fair, I think Trump winning Wisconsin is entirely possible. Despite everything, working-class voters there managed to re-elect Senator Ron Johnson. But it’s challenging to imagine that a state that elected the likes of John McCain and Jeff Flake and rejected Kari Lake and Blake Masters in favor of left-leaning Democrats would suddenly go all-in on Trump. It’s also challenging to imagine this path for a state that re-elected a popular GOP governor who was vilified by Trump at every turn and vehemently rejected the Senate’s selection of Trump in favor of the most left-wing senator in American history.
So, fellow Trump die-hards (I say this in a tone of affable banter, recognizing that we are allies on the enormous majority of issues), what is your plan for Trump’s must-win victories in Arizona and Georgia? How will you deal with it? Post it in the comments below, but be careful – if your answer even remotely resembles “DeSiMp CANNOT WIN THERE” or “Oh well, election fraud”, your arguments will simply be rejected.
Whether DeSantis can win is irrelevant to this discussion because the argument is that TRUMP cannot win. That’s a whole other topic that will be addressed when/if he enters the race, although I believe – for reasons I’ll discuss in future articles – that Florida’s governor has a better chance than anyone else. Additionally, I am in favor of trying to fix the electoral systems in various states, but we have to work with what we have. I’m not ready to take the black pill yet.
With these caveats in mind, give it your all!
