Did you know that President Donald Trump won the popular vote in battleground states in both 2016 and 2020?
If you add the popular vote in the 15 states where candidates actually campaigned, Trump won the vote by 1.63 million votes in 2016 and 2.3 million votes in 2020.
The election seemed close only because if 40,000 voters in three states in 2016 or 23,000 voters in three states in 2020 changed their minds, the outcome would change under the winner-take-all rule that applies in 48 states and the District Colombia to award electoral votes.
But the vote totals in these states are telling because in 15 states where Trump compared his ideas to those of his opponent, he won. He lost his overall vote count due to New York and California – states he never campaigned in.
The fact is that since 2000, the Conservative candidate has won the popular vote in battleground states four out of six times. George W. Bush and Trump won in jurisdictions where there was dynamic competition. But they lost in areas where they didn’t try to convince voters.
Conservatives have come to fear competition of ideas because they believe they will lose in the court of public opinion. As a result, conservatives lose where they do not campaign. The jury on the battlefield finds that where there is vigorous competition of ideas between major party candidates, we rule in favor of conservative ideas. In other words, where conservatives fight, they win. When they don’t do this, they lose.
That’s why conservatives should take another look at the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. There are several reasons.
First, conservatives should not be afraid to present and defend their ideas. Much of the opposition to a nationwide popular vote is rooted in the fear that people will vote for the other side. The left’s perceived national majority comes from New York and California, where it rules unchallenged.
Second, Republicans have spent the last 30 years trying to please narrow groups of voters in various parts of the country. In doing so, they abandoned conservatives to win battleground states. Bush pressed Congress on Medicare Part D, or free drugs for seniors, to win votes from seniors in the battleground state of Florida. Good politics, bad politics. Same with No Child Left Behind – huge intrusion into local control. Bush believed he had to win the battleground suburbs of Cincinnati, Ohio, where the idea was popular, even though it was and is a terrible policy that has alienated millions of conservatives across the country. I’ll say it again: good policy, bad idea.
Third, expansive numbers of conservatives in the Mountain West, Midwest and Southern states have been alienated and abandoned by the GOP establishment. This establishment is not trying to develop a political agenda or electoral strategy to engage these voters because they are focused on winning battleground states to win the presidency. Voter turnout in these areas is failing year after year because conservative voters rightly believe that no one cares what they think or what they want from the political process.
If every vote in every state counts in every election – a goal that will be achieved once the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact goes into effect – Republicans will have to worry about conservatives in every state and figure out what policies and strategies will get them to vote.
Importantly, when Republicans and conservatives engage in the competition of ideas, as the pact forces them to do, they will win. Trump proved it. After four years of constant negative media coverage, Trump still won in the states where he entered.
The deal will certainly also require conservatives to work harder, promote their ideas to a wider audience, and spend more time convincing more people that their ideas will make America better.
This challenge is worth the effort. Conservatives should not be afraid to pursue it.
Ray Haynes is a former California State Senator, former national chairman of the American Legislative Exchange Council, and senior advisor to National Popular Vote.
