Ohio Republican Senator Rob Portman announced yesterday that he will not seek re-election in 2022, citing partisan gridlock and toxic politics as factors behind his decision. Portman was heavily favored to win another term if he ran for it after he posted a 21-point victory over the Democratic former governor in his last race. Ohio has become redder in recent years, with Republicans dominating statewide offices legislature in Columbus. President Trump carried the Buckeye State twice, winning it by a comfortable eight-point margin both times. As a result, Portman’s soon-to-be vacant seat will lean heavily toward the GOP in 2022 — though nothing is guaranteed, especially in lithe of what happened in Georgia earlier this month. If the Republican Party falls apart, as it has in some places, Democrats may have a chance. If nothing else, having a virtually guaranteed seat puts him in at least some danger with Portman’s departure, making the task of national Republicans in the next term that much more hard. Every seat is crucial as the upper chamber is locked in a 50-50 tie. The fresh NRSC chairman, Senator Rick Scott of Florida, released the following statement statement about Portman’s phone:
Rob is an invaluable member of the Senate Republican Conference and will be greatly missed by his colleagues on both sides of the aisle. We are all grateful for his decades of service to our nation. …The 2022 elections in Ohio start today and Republicans will be in office. The NRSC will fight tirelessly in Ohio to ensure that Senator Portman’s successor supports a pro-growth, pro-family, pro-Ohio agenda, not the Radical Left agenda of higher taxes, bigger government, open borders, and a weakened America.
– added Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell his thoughts: :
“My friend Senator Portman has announced that his retirement in two years will be a great loss to the entire Senate. For ten years, our colleague from Ohio has been one of the most experienced and effective senators on both sides of the conflict. His mastery of politics, experience in various branches of government, genial demeanor and relentless focus on results have made him a powerful force for good and an advocate for Ohioans under presidential administrations of both parties. Both the Republican Conference and the entire institution will be worse off when Rob leaves, but fortunately in the meantime we have two more years to continue to benefit from his knowledge, principles and commitment to fighting for American families.”
If McConnell wants to regain his title as majority leader, Republicans need to keep Portman’s seat, preferably without sweating too much and spending massive amounts of money on the race. I would put the GOP-held seats in Florida (Rubio) and Iowa (Grassley) into a similar bucket, along with a few others that could probably end up on board if the cycle goes badly for Republicans. The toughest seats for the GOP to defend next cycle are in North Carolina (Burr’s retirement), Pennsylvania (Toomey’s retirement) and Wisconsin (Johnson). Democrats will aggressively attack all three. North Carolina is pale red, and Republicans struggled to win the presidential and Senate elections last November. The Keystone and Badger states were in a state of sadness last fall, so Toomey’s decision to resign from the Legislature was a real blow to Senate Republicans. Johnson will once again face the fight of his life.
On the other side of the aisle, Democrats will be defending territory that could also be challenging. Georgia (Warnock), Arizona (Kelly) and New Hampshire (Hassan) top the list. These first two seats were won by Democrats in special elections held in traditionally red states. Senators Warnock and Kelly will therefore serve their terms in the fall of ’22, and Republicans could be in a good position to beat them. However, Georgia and Arizona are an absolute no-brainer for the GOP right now, and there’s a circular firing squad going on in both states. In the desert, the state Republican Party — which has lost both Senate and presidential seats in the last two cycles — is busy condemning alleged apostates within their own ranks… including incumbent GOP governorwho has long been considered a very strong potential rival to Senator Kelly. Gov. Doug Ducey has already done this announced he is not running for the Senate, even though his current job is term-limited. Trump’s ingrained Republican fratricide greatly increases Democrats’ chances in these races.
Meanwhile, New Hampshire will present a prime opportunity for the party if popular three-term Gov. Chris Sununu faces undrafted Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan, who narrowly won her 2016 race. There are indications that Sununu is strongly considering apply for this place. And if Republicans manage to land strong candidates in Nevada (former Gov. Brian Sandoval?) and Colorado (former Sen. Cory Gardner?), those races could become competitive as well. Bottom line: If the Republican Party were not currently gripped by angry internal accusations, especially in some very important states, one could argue that the GOP has a real chance of winning a majority next year. But the dysfunction of the current party means the map is at best a toss-up. Democrats’ excessive efforts to control the trifecta over the next two years is one of the main factors that could potentially tip the scales in favor of Republicans. I’ll leave you with this this analysis 2022 Senate landscape by Josh Kraushaar:
New column: The biggest unknown for the 2022 landscape: Will mainstream Republicans win the nominations in key races, or will Trumpists prevail? Take a look at the 5 biggest breeds… https://t.co/3mLw5mro6z
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) January 25, 2021
