For me it’s quite uncomplicated. The race is heating up. The Republican National Convention gave Trump a boost. Independents return to the president. Black and Latino voters’ support for Trump has increased. The economy is coming back. The Trump campaign has a lot of wind in its sails. The leftist riots that have been raging all summer haven’t helped either and are reaching out to focus groups. This leaves the Democratic House increasingly vulnerable overall. In the six most competitive House districts, Republicans lead by 10 points; in 2018, Democrats led by five. But after the convention, a slew of polls showed Biden leading nationally, showed no breakout, showed this, that and the other to dampen GOP enthusiasm, which is sky-high for Trump. But how can Trump be compared to Biden in Michigan and North Carolina when the former vice president has an almost double-digit lead? What’s going on here?
I also see many liberal writers tweeting almost identical polling results across the country and in key states that reflect the 2016 election. How did it end for the Democrats? They outnumber Democrats and continue to exploit registered voter models. This is bullshit. And this is coming from a media establishment that generally hates the president. It’s no surprise that you haven’t heard about Trump’s 10-point shift that took place in Florida, or that Rasmussen found that black approval for Trump in Pennsylvania is hovering around 27 percent. This is a killer for Democrats – and in a key state.
10% shift towards Trump in 6 weeks https://t.co/sFc3zejX9U
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 3, 2020
This poll shows that 27% of Blacks in Pennsylvania support Trump: https://t.co/uSxCgVO88k
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) September 3, 2020
According to Rasmussen’s reports, presidential approval on September 2 of the respective re-election years:
Trump (2020): 49%
Obama (2012): 48%(probably voters)https://t.co/xVOxJZTgQ5
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) September 2, 2020
These are the winning numbers: https://t.co/EVLmBCcytF
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) September 2, 2020
David Chapman’s fascinating Twitter thread largely represents what many Republicans and Trump supporters have noticed about the polls. Worth reading:
THREAD:
Why should we believe that the polls are wrong again?1. All the polls that got it right in 2016 show a different race than the polls that got it wrong in 2016. Democracy Institute, Rasmussen, Trafalgar, Zogby, Emerson all show a different race than the other polls.
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 2, 2020
2. Interviewers’ methods. It’s September and so many of the polls are registered voter polls. At this time in 2016, many polls were focused on LV polls.
Also, we had almost no surveys for 6 weeks. This was also the period when Trump began his comeback.— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 2, 2020
Last week, the media started talking about how the riots were hurting Biden in the polls. There are still no public polls showing this “tightening.” Today, polls show Biden running away with the race. So why is the media panicking about the polls?
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 2, 2020
The media’s behavior is very suspicious. Also the behavior of the Biden campaign.
5. The media hasn’t given us a reason to trust them again. They spread a hoax about Russia. They traded in Ukraine. Mail fraud.— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 2, 2020
Why should the media commit to honesty in an election year when the guy they spent 4 years trying to destroy is running for re-election?
6. We have seen polling bias. 538 listed Trump’s approval of Emerson at 48%, down from 49%. It’s really a miniature thing.— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 2, 2020
We saw bias. Fox News has hired Donna Brazile. We saw bias. The media has given us no reason to believe them. Are we supposed to believe that the guy hiding in the basement is ahead by 7 points in the country? And until 9 in AZ?
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 2, 2020
Biden rushes to Kenosha after Trump visited Kenosha…but we should believe Biden leads by 8 in WI!!!!!
The Biden campaign has tried to avoid the press as much as possible. Biden took questions today… but we should believe that Biden is ahead by 7 across the country.— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 2, 2020
If Biden is ahead by 7 points nationwide, why does Morning Consult give Trump a 5-point lead in Ohio? Both things cannot be true. If Biden is leading nationwide by 7, why is Trump leading in Iowa???? If Biden is ahead by 7 points, why do so many polls show Trump leading in North Carolina?
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 2, 2020
If Biden is ahead by 7 points nationally, why is Minnesota so competitive????
State polls do not show Biden leading by 7 points nationwide!!!
The polls are bullshit and the media is going out!!!!!!That’s why we shouldn’t trust the polls. For the sake of common sense.
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 2, 2020
“If Biden is ahead by 7 points nationwide, why does Morning Consult give Trump a 5-point lead in Ohio? Both things cannot be true. If Biden is leading nationally by 7, why is Trump leading in Iowa???? If Biden is ahead by 7 points, why do so many polls show Trump leading in North Carolina?”
TRUE. And yes, there exacerbation continuesin some studies even more. Chapman adds: “Biden is spending money in MN, NV, ME and NH. Hillary won all the states. But are we supposed to believe the polls? When Obama won 7 in 2008, he almost won MO. Biden has a lead of 7, but Trump has 11 points in MO. If Biden was leading the country by 7, why isn’t MO competitive?”
I hate to say it, but perhaps liberal activist Michael Moore understands the mood of the country better than these so-called pollsters. Moore raised the alarm that Trump is on track to win the 2020 election, with Trump and Biden currently going head-to-head in Michigan. I’ll say it again: voter enthusiasm is on Trump’s side, not Biden’s. Moreover, in more left-leaning polls, if Trump is within single digits of Biden, he is certainly within striking distance. And with the riots, debates, economic recovery, voter enthusiasm and Biden’s stealth strategy, the race is getting closer, much closer. And after the prank he pulled recently in Kenosha, which was ravaged by leftist chaos, I understand why his people kept him in the basement.
Deep down, Democrats know Biden is on shaky ground. It’s not stitched at all. Trump should never be counted out this far from Election Day. Biden’s team learned this the challenging way. The GOP convention abandoned bunker busting over its “wait around the clock” approach. Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. In conclusion, people, be skeptical of these polls because I’m sure you already know what happened in 2016. This is not the midterms of 2018. The base strongly supports Trump and he will be the leading candidate on the ballot this year. Plus, there definitely seems to be a timid Trump contingent.
The “sleepers” are waking up, but they are behaving wisely and not letting their super “awake” neighbors, the Libyan soy boys, find out as well as pollsters across the country.
